Two months after the climate change negotiations, it is a good time to reflect on what comes next.
I won’t pretend that the United Kingdom is entirely pleased with the outcome. Minister Buyelwa Sonjica and her team have been honest about their disappointments. We share many of them.
I wrote last year that South Africa and the UK were heading to Copenhagen with a shared objective of achieving a binding, ambitious and equitable agreement that would set the world on a low-carbon pathway and limit the worst effects of a changing climate.
We did not achieve that. Does this mean we should give a lower priority to climate change? Absolutely not. The dangers of an increase in global temperatures of more than 2°C are just as stark as they were in 2009. The threat of climate change is simply too profound for us to give up now.
So people are right to question why Copenhagen did not deliver.
More than 50 000 people flocked to Denmark, with almost universal recognition that the world needs to face up to the challenge of climate change and man’s contribution to it. But the complexity of the negotiations, combined with the ability of states to use the chaotic process to mask points of substantive disagreements, conspired against our best hopes.
The event was dogged by procedural games, which calls into question how these United Nations negotiations are conducted. The UK’s minister for climate change and energy, Ed Miliband, says that by the last day ‘there was simply too little time to bridge some of the differences that existed.
‘So we need to find better ways of running the process of negotiation and I welcome the UN secretary general’s decision to look again at these issues.”
But did it fail completely? I would argue not.
South Africa played an important role in getting as far as it did, acting as a bridge builder between developed and developing countries, working with the other Basic (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) countries and Africa, and pushing for higher ambition across the board.
South Africa’s decision to announce its offer of 34% against ‘Business as Usual” by 2020, and 42% by 2025, subject to international support, provided a welcome boost at the start of the two-week talks. It was a pity that collectively we were unable to live up to this throughout the fortnight.
Copenhagen produced an accord that does five things for the first time. It agrees to take action to hold the increase in global temperatures below 2°C, and commits all countries (rich and poor) to set out the actions they will take to cut emissions or mitigate climate change by 2020.
Agreement was also reached on listing commitments to cut emissions by developed and developing countries and on introducing real scrutiny to ensure emission targets are met by both developed and developing countries, with mandatory reporting every two years.
And possibly the biggest win is an unprecedented commitment to climate finance, with developed countries agreeing to provide finance to help the least-developing countries tackle and adapt to climate change — a $30-billion fast-start package between now and 2012 and $100-billion a year by 2020.
The accord is not everything we wanted and it is only a start. But we have momentum. We must not lose this.
The UK and South Africa want a binding pact and we need to work with other like-minded partners to convince those who weren’t ready for a legal treaty to move to one as quickly as possible.
The immediate next step is for countries to come forward with formal commitments on emissions cuts or mitigation actions to enter on a register.
South Africa’s leadership will again be crucial, by confirming the offer it made in Copenhagen. We in the UK stand by our domestic commitment to reduce emissions by 34% by 2020. And we are determined to see the EU rise to a target of 30% by 2020, alongside other countries hiking their ambitions.
We should take heart that with vision, leadership, flexibility and, above all, an understanding that we are working collectively towards a secure future for our children and grandchildren, we can build on the little steps taken at Copenhagen to take bolder ones as we approach Mexico.
Dr Nicola Brewer is the British High Commissioner to South Africa