Most Medupi-watchers agree that the country urgently needs the new giant coal-fired power station, but disagree on just how soon it will be ready to help keep the country’s lights on.
Last week Eskom set the completion date for the first of Medupi’s six 800MW units back by three months to September 2012, but energy analysts in the private sector fear Medupi could be completed as many as two years behind schedule.
Medupi, in Limpopo, is seen as important in bridging the gap between power supply and demand.
At a co-generation conference in Johannesburg last week, a senior manager with the company contracted by Eskom to supply coal to Medupi caused a stir when he said that the government should be more transparent about when the power station would come online.
“Industry leaders are misinformed on where we are. Medupi will be behind by two years. We will be in a dire situation shortly,” Exxaro growth energy manager Thomas Garner is quoted as saying by Reuters.
In a statement released the same day Eskom finance director Paul O’Flaherty admitted that “various ‘scenarios’, including — delaying Medupi for two years, have been run for the department of energy’s Integrated Resources Plan 2 (IRP 2) modelling”, but added that “they are no more than scenarios”. Eskom reiterated that it anticipated no more than a “potential three-month delay”.
Exxaro subsequently distanced itself from Garner’s comments, saying they were “his personal opinion regarding the possibility of delays in the Medupi project”. The company said it was ready to supply coal for the start-up of the first generating unit “in the second quarter [of] 2012”.
The department of public enterprises, which oversees Eskom’s operations, said: “The information we have is that there is potential that the project could be delayed for three months from its original delivery date” and referred further questions on the matter to Eskom.
The department of energy believes Garner was “out of order to speak on behalf of Eskom”, according to spokesperson Bheki Khumalo.
But independent energy consultant and self-proclaimed “Eskom-watcher” Ted Blom, who was at the co-generation conference, said: “You’ve got to believe this guy [Garner] because he’s on site and knows what’s going on.”
Mike Rossouw, chairman of the Energy Intensive User Group of South Africa, which is providing technical input into a National Electricity Contingency Plan currently being developed, said the prediction of two-year delays at Medupi “are void of the facts and exaggerated”.
“Eskom have announced there are some delays of some months but we do not see two years,” Rossouw said.
Another private industry source pointed out that Eskom’s most recently announced three-month delay is in addition to two previous delays: “Initially, Medupi was supposed to be commissioned in 2011, then it was put back to early 2012 and now it’s mid- to late 2012.”
He said that unforeseen construction delays are a common problem at power plants, but criticised Eskom for not placing a turnkey contract with the engineering, construction and procurement contractor, which would have held the contractor liable for not meeting deadlines.
“You can put down any date, but if the contractor is not forced to deliver, you carry the liability yourself. Then the question is, who really carries that liability? In this situation, it’s the consumer, because the consumer is the one not getting the power,” the source said.