/ 12 November 2010

Wales can’t be saved

The Springbok squad, with sterling performances from fringe players, looks too strong for this weekend's opposition

The last time the Springboks embarked on a Grand Slam tour they won the first Test by two points and then fell apart. Saturday’s 23-21 win against Ireland contained enough positives to suggest that history will not repeat itself.

Jake White’s team of 2004 beat Wales 38-36 in their opening encounter, before travelling across the Irish Sea and returning with collective tails between legs.

The reversal of fixtures this time around is significant and if you wanted to get all Pollyanna-ish you might even argue that the most significant hurdle — the Becher’s Brook as it were — has already been jumped.

Wales showed precious little in their Test against Australia last week to suggest that they have the firepower to deal with South Africa. They are missing a handful of their best players and the weight of history is significantly against them. This will be Test number 25 between the two countries and Wales have won one and drawn one in that time.

Furthermore the Boks have already beaten Wales at the Millennium Stadium this year, although you’d be hard-pressed to justify the June fixture as a form guide.

Just four of Saturday’s team began that game and only Victor Matfield and Ruan Pienaar will be playing in the same positions they filled that day.

It was a spurious idea for a game in the first place. Supposedly marking the 10-year anniversary of the opening of the stadium, it came a year late.

The previous weekend the Bulls had beaten the Stormers in the Super 14 final and several big names were omitted from the side that travelled to Cardiff. The real reason that the world champions flew in was for the R7-million match fee.

Ironically the stadium was full for the out of season fixture, which it will not be this week. The game itself bore marked similarities to the one of 2004, with a fast-finishing Wales ending three points shy on this occasion.

Defeat for the home side was another downer for coach Warren Gatland, who now has a lone 2008 win against the Wallabies from 11 Tests against Tri-Nations opposition.

Another damning statistic is that Wales have won just five of their last 16 Tests, although five also happens to be the number of games the Springboks lost in this year’s Tri-Nations.

The significance of this week’s game is that it arrives 10 months ahead of the next fixture between the teams, which will be their opening game of the 2011 World Cup.

After a few sterling performances from fringe players and Test debutants last week it is worth remembering that the World Cup is so close at hand. A few stalwarts might have been concerned about the display against Ireland, because it opened a can of worms around selection.

Not for the first time, John Smit’s future must come under the microscope. The leadership skills at national level of Victor Matfield have been questioned, but he was a significant calming presence in Dublin. Furthermore, Smit’s replacement in the hooker’s berth, Bismarck du Plessis, had one of his best Test matches yet.

Du Plessis has now had three games in a row — the Currie Cup semifinal and final were the other two — where he has made prodigious contributions.

Significantly, referees have spent far less time talking to him than we have become accustomed to. It is a sign of maturity in a player who is now ready to step out of the shadows and become the best hooker in world rugby.

The other highly debateable position is at flyhalf, where Morne Steyn’s charmed life could be coming to an end. Since making his debut against the British and Irish Lions in 2009, Steyn has been regarded as the first name on the coach’s team sheet, but he has had a poor international season in everything bar goal kicking.

The latter aspect has kept him in the team through the bad times and as Brendan Gallagher put it in the Telegraph, ‘the Earth shifted marginally on its axis when the remarkable Steyn — having advanced his world record to 41 successful place kicks on the bounce for South Africa, suddenly and inexplicably sliced a 40-metre effort on the right. Back to the drawing board then.”

Irony of course, but actually yes, back to the drawing board, for the fact is that some sensational Springbok backlines have failed to deliver because Steyn is in the way.

When he was replaced in the final quarter by Patrick Lambie the effect was palpable. Suddenly the backs were running on to the ball and Gio Aplon’s try owed much to Lambie’s perfectly executed skip pass.

It’s not time to throw the baby out with the bathwater and Steyn’s points-gathering ability will keep him in the mix for a few seasons yet, particularly at the World Cup. But the return of Francois Steyn this week may add further perspective to the essentially one-dimensional nature of his namesake’s contributions.

All indications are that Saturday evening should arrive with a playing record on tour of played two, won two. Day by day it’s getting harder to stay calm about this squad’s prospects.