Only a decade ago Côte d’Ivoire enjoyed a reputation as a haven of stability and prosperity in West Africa.
It was the world’s largest cocoa producer and a magnet for workers from neighbouring countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso.
Yet, even then, it was already possible to see signs of unrest and economic decline. Its success was a result of the long rule of its first president, Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who led the nation to independence from France in 1960 and ruled until his death in 1993.
He maintained a capitalist, anti-communist policy friendly to the former colonial masters.
Today, Côte d’Ivoire’s decline is profound. But its potential is still there. Substantial reserves of oil and gas have been found offshore. French, American, Chinese and South African investors are waiting for the political situation to stabilise so business can resume.
That is why, after 10 years of a political, economic and security crisis, Côte d’Ivoire’s long-delayed election is so important. Whoever gets the top job will face a huge challenge: to bring back hope to the majority of the population and reunify a divided country.
Desires for the future
A high unemployment rate, the degradation of the country’s infrastructure and a general breakdown of institutions characterise the past decade.
Ivorians want their stability back. They showed this on October 31, the first round of the election, by going to the polls peacefully in what the United Nations Security Council has declared a fair election with minor incidents.
The votes were roughly 38% for Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president and leader of the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI); 32% for Alassane Ouattara, the former prime minister and leader of the Rassemblement Démocratique des Républicains (RDR); and 25% for Henri Konan Bédié, the former president and leader of the Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI).
No real surprise: everybody was aware the election would revolve around these three key political players.
What was unexpected was the poor showing of Bédié’s PDCI. The party was entrenched in power by Houphouët, who outlawed all opposition, but after the institution of multiparty democracy in 1990 it lost traction.
Bédié succeeded Houphouët in 1993 and he and a handful of intellectuals coined the concept of “ivoirité” (ivorianness) as an attempt to understand the essence of the Ivorian nation. But, in an increasingly difficult economic climate, “ivoirité” became a way of asking “Who is Ivorian and who is not?” The predominantly Muslim northerners began to feel alienated.
At war
In September 2002, dissident soldiers attacked Abidjan in an attempt to overthrow Gbagbo, whose FPI came to power in 2000 in disputed elections. The attempt failed, but the rebels did seize the north of the country.
It has taken several peace accords, a coalition government that included rebel leader Guillaume Soro, and six election postponements to get Côte d’Ivoire where it is today — the final, run-off stage of its presidential election.
After the first round Gbagbo leads with a 6% margin, making him the most likely winner. But Bédié is the king-maker, thanks to a pre-election pact with Ouattara that meant each would back whoever made it to the second round.
This may tilt the balance in Outtara’s favour. But elections are not a simple mathematical exercise. The human dimension is the most important ingredient.
Will Bédié’s supporters follow his call to support Ouattara? Or will they be guided by ethnic identity? If Gbagbo is declared the winner, will the north accept the results and agree to a reunification? If Gbagbo loses, will his supporters accept defeat?
There is no ideal candidate. Gbagbo projects himself as a “true son of the land”, but his critics say he has mismanaged the country.
Gbagbo says he was prevented from doing his job by the civil war. As for Ouattara, many in the south see him as a foreigner — his parents were from Burkina Faso. (He was barred from taking part in the 2002 elections on those grounds.) His detractors also accuse him of having links to the rebellion, which he denies.
Whoever the next president of Côte d’Ivoire is, he faces the huge challenge of reunifying the country. Until that happens, the stability and prosperity of the past will remain elusive.
Véronique Tadjo is a writer and academic from Côte d’Ivoire. She is the head of French studies at the University of the Witwatersrand