According to a report released on Friday, South Africa has the ability to more than halve its new HIV infections in 10 years if it used the right programmes and funding.
But the report, undertaken at the request of the government, also warned that even with wise decision-making, about five-million more South Africans would become infected over the next two decades.
This was roughly the number of people infected to date.
The report was compiled by experts from the Cape Town-based Centre for Economic Governance on Aids in Africa, and the United States’ Results for Development Institute.
It said that with the right funding mix and programme choices, South Africa could reduce the number of new HIV infections “by more than half their current level” to less than 200 000 a year by 2020.
The funding required to fight Aids in South Africa under the scenarios explored in the report would require a rise in spending from around R16-billion in 2009 to R28-billion to R35-billion by 2015/16.
SA is 15% of infections
South Africa, the report said, already accounted for nearly 15% of all Aids spending in low and middle-income countries.
“It’s critical that the government of South Africa and other organisations at the national and international level involved in the fight against Aids mobilise around these financing issues,” said Robert Hecht, one of the report’s authors and managing director of Results for Development.
He said South Africa was acting to makes its Aids programmes as effective as possible in stopping new infections and saving lives.
“[But] our analysis underscores the need for a long-term view … use the money available for Aids as efficiently as possible over the next two decades or longer. Difficult and decisive choices need to be made now, that will have important consequences for years to come.”
The report said that under a continuation of the approach adopted in South Africa’s current national Aids plan, total costs from now to 2031 were estimated at R658-billion, with new infections falling only gradually to about 350 000 a year.
With a more ambitious and broad-based prevention policy, total costs might rise to R765 billion over the 20-year period, but the number of infections would fall to under 200 000 a year by 2031.
The report was to be presented at a meeting of the South African National Aids Council in Daveyton on Friday. — Sapa