The day of reckoning for the leaders of South Africa’s two biggest political parties is close and it is no exaggeration that whatever happens on May 18 will be a reflection of the leadership capabilities of Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille and ANC president Jacob Zuma.
I pick out the two because, unlike in 2009 where we had an unexpected new factor in the Congress of the People, I expect these elections will continue the pattern of the decimation of the small parties at the expense of the two-horse race phenomenon of the ruling party and its main opposition.
Wednesday May 18 will pronounce on whether Zille is indeed what she has been punted as — the friendly face of the historically white DA, which has shed its fight-black conservative image and has broadened the party’s appeal to a much more non-racial audience.
Zille speaks Xhosa and is seen daily on TV surrounded by a group of black people at hustings across the country. That image is not accidental — it is part of a strategic outlook that Zille wants to portray, which may or may not be a reflection of reality.
The DA projects that its support among the black electorate will shoot from a paltry 2% to double digits, which will be massive by our standards. Zille’s campaigners are confident that the South African electorate will finally be unshackled from the racial voting patterns of the past 17 years.
The DA might well increase its support among black people but even if it does what will that signify? Will it signify that black people are finally embracing the DA as the only real non-racial party, as it has been claiming, and endorse Zille’s non-racial project? Or will it only mean that, with widespread dissatisfaction with the ANC and the death of Cope, the only other party that seems to have a presence is the DA? The interpretation and analysis of the results will keep our political commentators employed for the next few months. But, like any other politician, if Zille gets the numbers, she will be fully entitled to spin them whichever way she likes.
Zuma, for his part, seems to see or hear no problems in the ANC’s local government election campaign. On almost every platform where he has spoken in the past two weeks he has insisted that the media are exaggerating and imagining all the unhappiness with the campaign and nomination of councillors.
It is hard to explain why he cannot see the obvious — the reality of the wide gap between the slick, highly effective ANC electoral campaign of 2009 (when he was being used as a bogey man) to the incoherence and total chaos of this year’s. His election organising team itself clearly fears the worst, as exemplified by their hasty promise to disgruntled ANC members that they will remove “fraudulently” nominated councillors after the elections. This was a panic button to contain dissatisfaction and keep potential dissenters in the fold.
Could it be that Zuma fears that an admission of failure might be a reflection of his leadership, which members will pronounce on next year at the ANC’s national conference?
But come May 18 the numbers will not lie. They will either confirm him as a wily, rooted leader who is in touch with the feelings of most South Africans or they will give ammunition to those inside his party who want him to serve one term only and hand over the reins to someone else.
Unfortunately in this year’s election voters are again being offered the same menu as they were in all other previous elections — very little choice. Only a few of the parties are campaigning on local issues and relying on local leaders to rally support. The others are all flying in their heavyweights from party headquarters, who utter the same rhetorical platitudes regardless of the location and conditions.
We might sigh in exasperation, feel for the two leaders on trial and pray that the small parties will surprise us but, as voters, the ball is entirely in our court.
For exclusively M&G articles and multimedia on the local government elections 2011 click here:
