Morgan Tsvangirai’s party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), fears that President Robert Mugabe may be losing control of radical elements in the military. This follows a public row between Tsvangirai and generals that could signal the start of a new crackdown on Mugabe’s opponents.
The row has underlined the resolve among senior army figures to oppose security reforms proposed by the MDC in talks, mediated by South African President Jacob Zuma, about a road map to new elections.
The MDC wants Mugabe loyalists purged from the army, but Zanu-PF does not want interference in the military because, it says, this would compromise national security. The widening rift between the MDC and the army will make it harder for Zuma’s team to push the two parties towards a common plan for free and fair elections.
A senior member of the army, Brigadier General Douglas Nyikayaramba, has emerged as the face of a group of senior military officers that, he says, is prepared to die to keep Mugabe in power.
“Tsvangirai does not pose a political threat in any way in Zimbabwe but is a major security threat. He takes instructions from foreigners who seek to effect regime change in Zimbabwe,” Nyikayaramba told the government-controlled Herald. The army was “prepared to die” to keep Mugabe in power, he vowed.
The MDC believes Mugabe may no longer have a grip on some of his senior generals. “Mugabe has lost control of rogue elements in the police and the army; he is failing to restrain his junta. It is unlikely that, even if Mugabe agrees on a free and fair election, it will be peaceful, given that he has lost control,” MDC spokesman Douglas Mwonzora said.
But Zanu-PF spokesperson Rugare Gumbo said the army, which forged ties to his party during the liberation struggle, remained loyal to Zanu-PF.
“We have always had a mantra in our party: the party leads the gun, the gun does not lead the party,” Gumbo said. Nyikayaramba’s statements, he said, were only an expression of his personal beliefs.
But it is unlikely that Nyikayaramba would be speaking in public without the approval of his senior generals. What is less clear, Mugabe opponents say, is whether the president has had any influence on recent events.
Seeking to reach out to the moderates there may be in the military, the MDC said it believed Nyikayaramba represented only a small unit within the army, and not the whole military, which it says remains professional.
Tsvangirai has told supporters he expects to be arrested and has challenged the generals to face him in an election. Last weekend, addressing a rally, he dared them to “shoot” him.
“But I tell you, if they kill me, that is the end of them. They should stop scaring us and intimidating us with empty threats because we are not scared,” he said.
Tsvangirai has previously charged that civilian authority had been usurped by “dark and sinister forces”. On a recent visit to Spain, Tsvangirai criticised what he called “a small, parasitic clique at the helm of the military that is at the forefront of systemic violation of the people’s fundamental rights and freedoms”.
The arrest on June 24 of Jameson Timba, an MDC minister and close ally of Tsvangirai, on allegations that he called Mugabe a “liar”, reflects the growing tension. Timba was shunted from one police station to another, kept away from his family and lawyers, and denied food or water.
In the cells he met members of his party whom he says were detained “simply for being members of the MDC”.
“This has only strengthened my resolve to fight for change. We must fight all the provisions that limit freedom of expression, association and assembly. Every citizen must feel protected by the law,” Timba said after his release this week.
Timba was charged with “undermining the authority of the president”, a charge frequently used against those who speak against Mugabe, or even make fun of him.
There are also fears of a campaign against journalists after state media ran repeat broadcasts claiming to have uncovered evidence that independent journalists were being paid by Western powers “to tarnish the image of President Mugabe and Zanu-PF”.