ANC national executive committee member Tokyo Sexwale’s allies say that the former Gauteng premier is eyeing 2017, not 2012, as the year in which he will make a bid for the ANC presidency.
That would make him a likely candidate for the country’s presidency in 2019.
Human settlements minister in President Jacob Zuma’s Cabinet, Sexwale was recently in the spotlight in defence of the ANC Youth League and its president Julius Malema. He turned down a request for an interview this week.
Three close allies of Sexwale, who asked not to be named, said this week he was hoping that the youth league would support him for the position of ANC deputy president in Mangaung.
From there, he would make a bid for the ANC presidency in 2017.
Sexwale has gone so far as to warn the ANC to think about the consequences of undermining the league’s influence.
“He is starting to take more risks,” said an ally. “He has already taken a risk by appointing Winnie Madikizela-Mandela as his adviser, backing Malema, and questioning his own organisation.
“This is Tokyo’s second attempt at the presidency and he knows it’s a case of do or die.”
Sexwale declared his interest in leading the ANC and South Africa six months before the ANC congress in 2007 in an interview with the BBC’s Hard Talk.
However, he decided to throw his weight behind Zuma late in the race because he lacked sufficient support to win the presidency.
He has learned from the 2007 experience, said an ally.
“Unless you have an institutionalised support base, you are not going to make it. And you have got to start the push early; you need a year or more to campaign.”
Sexwale’s impatience
Sexwale’s presidential dream could be realised come 2017. “He’s rich, meaning he won’t be easily compromised by money,” his ally pointed out.
Sexwale appears on the youth league’s current slate as deputy president. Kgalema Motlanthe is the preferred presidential candidate, while Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula features as secretary general.
Those close to Sexwale said he was openly taking on Zuma because he was becoming “impatient” with Motlanthe’s silence about his intentions. “He has already accepted that he’s working for Kgalema for 2012. Kgalema can sit back and watch as Tokyo and Zuma take on each other and benefit from that,” said an ally.
However, some ANC members, including some in the youth league, believe he is not presidential material.
“His problem is that he wants to play Chris Hani or Nelson Mandela. He’s not original. Politics is not a movie, where one can choose to play any character. You must be yourself,” said an ANC member with close ties to the youth league.
A Gauteng ANC leader believes Sexwale is frustrated that some in the ANC and government don’t take him seriously as a political player.
“He is getting irritated that the other guys don’t give him the respect he deserves. He feels Zuma doesn’t respect him. That’s why he’s fighting him [Zuma] openly.”
Some in the ANC also doubt that the youth league will continue to play the king-making role it has in the past.
“Some younger people like his political style, but the ANC gets more conservative as it grows older and he won’t get the same support from the party,” said an ally. “I don’t think the youth league will deliver [the ANC presidency] this time around.”