/ 19 July 2013

Election 2014: Let the games begin

Election 2014: Let The Games Begin

And it behooves us as citizens to be vigilant that much of what is taking place is geared towards capturing our precious vote nine months from now.

The first to play his cards is President Jacob Zuma, who is consolidating his position by removing unwanted debris, investing in new people and repaying all those who have supported him through these hard years with prime positions.

His Cabinet reshuffle last week, the removal of Limpopo premier Cassel Mathale and the disbanding of ANC Youth League structures indicate a man preparing the ground for a crucial year, one in which he bids for another five-year term and during which, again, dissenting voices will be raised in the party, asking whether he is the right face to carry the ANC through these elections. So he needs to act now to get his ducks in a row.

Zuma's allies in trade union federation Cosatu are hard at work trying to kick out general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, as he remains the one powerful voice in the alliance that is critical of the government.

The only province where Zuma has almost unanimous support is KwaZulu-Natal; everywhere else he must toil. In North West, for example, the ANC faces an internal rebellion, with councillors in different municipalities agitating against the provincial ANC leadership.

Tlokwe is interesting for me, as most people assume the renegade councillors are taking a stand against corruption or are supporting the Democratic Alliance because it provides a better alternative.

Irrelevance
For a long time (under ANC rule), Tlokwe has been one of the country's best-run municipalities and its service delivery record is evident if you visit the area, including in the many informal settlements that have sprouted in the past few years.

Problems abound, of course, but relatively speaking, its administration has been miles ahead of most municipalities. It is the embedded problems in the party that have caught up with it.

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe has again warned the ANC that it risks losing support bcause of irrelevance. More damningly, he has said: As an ANC member myself, there are things that I can't comprehend and there are things that don't make sense to me politically.

Next year is going to be a tough one for the ruling party as it faces the real prospect of clocking up its worst performance since 1994.

The Democratic Alliance should be happier about 2014 as by-elections indicate that its support in the townships is going way beyond the 1% the party consistently used to receive. There is suddenly a buzz about the DA and its leaders have a real chance of winning at least a quarter of the votes cast next year. In the last elections the DA won 16.6% of the vote.

The party has a well-oiled machinery and a strong financial base, but must overcome scepticism about it being a vehicle of white privilege. Of course, the DA fancies itself as a government-in-waiting and will be hoping that it doesn't just continue to garner votes from minorities, but also wins over critics in the townships.

But Agang SA, led by academic and human rights activist Mamphela Ramphele, is fishing in the same pond. Agang will be very powerful in preaching about the rule of law, ending corruption, the need for quality education and an effective government with the will to deliver to all citizens. Although it claims otherwise, it is not evident that Agang has grass-roots structures in all provinces. So it will compete for the same kind of voters as the DA and may benefit from the carcass of Cope, which I believe will shed most of the 1.5-million voters who supported it in 2009. Many first-time voters might also like Ramphele's message. But the ANC will not lose sleep over it.

A party that hopes to give the ANC a headache is the one led by its one-time youth league firebrand, Julius Malema, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Malema has been joined by black consciousness activist Andile Mngxitama, who will be arguing the cause for the EFF's radical economic proposals. The party will be actively seeking to dent ANC support by targeting ANC members and supporters. Whether it succeeds will also depend on how Malema conducts himself and how his various court cases unfold in the next few months. Malema could either alienate or win over supporters with his sharp tongue. There will also invariably be attempts by members of the ruling party to close the space for the EFF, as happened to Cope in 2009. And the party will struggle to get funding with its anti-capital stance.

Brace yourself for a lot of political hot air in the next few months.