A choice will be made between Zwelinzima Vavi's political integrity and the shaky alliance between the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the ruling party in the rape allegations saga, say political analysts.
They argue that the anticipated hearing against Cosatu's general secretary will see the federation caught between a rock and a hard place. If they challenge Vavi's political integrity, they in turn risk losing affiliates who have been in full support of him. If they let him off the hook, he will continue to challenge the shaky alliance between Cosatu and the ruling party ahead of the 2014 elections.
Cosatu's central executive committee is expected to have a special sitting this week to deliberate on the long-awaited report from the sexual harassment grievance inquiry against its secretary general. The trade union federation's highest decision making body is said to be empowered to decide on Vavi's future with Cosatu. The possible charges facing Vavi are:
- Having sexual relations with a junior staffer at the Cosatu premises
- Making a unilateral irregular appointment
- Bringing the organisation into disrepute
Last month, a 26-year-old Cosatu employee filed a complaint of rape against Vavi with Cosatu and subsequently demanded a R2-million payoff from Vavi and his wife in exchange for not pressing criminal charges. During an internal inquiry, the woman dropped the charges. He has since pressed charges of extortion against the woman.
Analysts paint scenarios of what could culminate if Vavi is charged, and if his political career survives.
If not charged:
A very dim future for the ANC/Cosatu alliance is anticipated if Vavi retains his position as secretary general. For months Vavi has launched a scathing attack on President Jacob Zuma's administration for being corrupt. The ANC has since expressed its unhappiness over Cosatu, it's alliance partner, attacking them.
Vavi defended himself last year on Twitter. "I engage with public debates and will never take internal debates to social media. I will not be gagged, mightier ones failed in the past". Vavi has continued to antagonise the ruling party with no fear and to target crucial national policies he feels the ANC needs to be called out on.
According to Nic Borain, the strategic objective of the ANC should be to ensure that, with the 2014 elections coming up, all guns are facing the opposition, not fellow alliance members.
"The ANC obviously has every intention to lower [Vavi's] voice. The ideal situation for them is to have him silenced," said Borain.
The alternative – which will see him step down – would suit the ANC better as Cosatu would simply be following their constitutional stipulations. Cosatu's constitution allows for the removal or suspension of a national office bearer if the official commits misconduct, neglects duty or acts in a manner that is detrimental to the federation or is in conflict with its constitution.
Neither the ANC nor Cosatu would be accused of plotting to get rid of him, as Vavi has served them the ammunition. "Vavi's misdemeanours and recklessness are very serious in an organisation that has been clear on how women in this country need to be respected and not be treated like sex objects," argues Borain.
Borain adds that in so vicious a political arena, the ruling party will be expecting Cosatu to do what they have to in order to ensure that the unity and strength of the alliance is persevered. Failure to do so might see a stronger Vavi coming out with bigger guns to jeopardise the alliance and the national election.
If charged:
There is growing pressure on Cosatu to prove its commitment to the ANC, but they are equally pressured to prove to their affiliates and members that Vavi's accusations of the leadership sidelining him, are, in fact, not true.
Political analyst Andre Duvenhage is adamant that if Cosatu finds Vavi guilty, they will be faced with a split. "There is no doubt that Cosatu would face a split if they remove Vavi as general secretary. Affiliates support him, if Cosatu brings Vavi's political career to an end, it could lose some of its biggest and influential affiliates."
Borain also warned that ousting him could have dire long term consequences for business and investment. "A breakdown in alliance could see big unions such as the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) detaching its membership from Cosatu, which will create insecurity for labour and the economy," he predicted.
Cosatu affiliates have supported Vavi throughout the rape scandal and have assured that his innocence is undisputed. They have also called for Cosatu to abort the process where he might be charged, or else they will see it as a conspiracy to silence him in his quest for transparency.
Vavi's supporters
?The NUM has been supportive of Vavi from the day allegations of rape surfaced against him, claiming that they will deem him innocent until proven otherwise. This is despite the fact that the NUM's general secretary Frans Baleni was accused of planting the female rape accuser. The NUM is associated with a powerful faction in Cosatu that is unhappy with Vavi's repeated criticism of government and the ANC.
Baleni denied the accusation, adding that the NUM and its leaders would never be part of an attack against Vavi.
The largest metalworkers union (and second largest trade union) in South Africa, the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa), has called for the whole process to be dropped by Cosatu. Irvin Jim, Numsa's general secretary, commended Vavi for having "internal great personal moral strength to acknowledge his faults".
He added that should the matter be taken any further, the union would "fail to read [it as] anything else other than cheap opportunism, or clear conspiracy, should anyone seek to further place Comrade Vavi under duress over this matter".
The Food and Allied Workers' Union (Fawu) pleaded with the Vavi family to avail him for another term of office between 2015 and 2018 as Cosatu's general secretary. "This latest failed onslaught, on the heels of a wild-cat project linking Vavi to some administrative impropriety and to some allegations of political/ideological and organisational misconduct, we are convinced that we maybe need him more than before," said Katishi Masemola, general secretary of Fawu.
Masemola added that while respecting internal processes, in the "sea of impunity of information-leaking to and lies-peddling in the media", the "throw as much mud and some will stick" approach would not work.
The South African Democratic Teachers' Union (Sadtu) described the pending disciplinary hearing is an attempt to silence Cosatu in its campaigning against corruption. Sadtu president Thobile Ntola in a statement said: "Following the dropped charges by the rape accuser, the matter should be put to rest. We have accepted Vavi's apology was accepted by the union."
Cosatu's national spokesperson Patrick Craven said no decisions have been made to charge Vavi on any grounds. He further refused to comment on whether a special meeting would sit after the report was finalised. "Once everything has been discussed and resolutions have been taken, we will release a statement."