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30 Apr 2019 13:16
The latest poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) indicates that the ANC’s national majority hangs in the balance, with the party polling 5.2 percentage points down from the institutes’s February poll.
The IRR poll showing the ANC’s national support dropping some 5 percentage points since its own last poll in February is an unlikely scenario since this was before the party’s election campaign kicked into high gear.
If the poll is correct, it could imply that the ANC’s campaign has alienated, rather than energised its supporters.
On a 100% turnout, the IRR places the ANC’s support at 49.5% nationally and 51% on a 71.9% turnout scenario.
It also shows an outright loss for the ANC of the country’s economic heartland, Gauteng, with its support placed at 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February and at 39% on a 70.4% turnout.
The poll comes amid a report by News24 that the Democratic Alliance’s internal research showed a massive decline in support for the ANC in Gauteng and a surge in support for the official opposition.
The IRR places the DA’s support nationally at 21.3%, down by 0.5 percentage points from its February poll and at 24% on a 71.9% turnout.
The IRR polled the Economic Freedom Fighters at 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February, and 14% on a 71.9% turnout scenario.
It places the DA’s support in Gauteng at 31.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from February, and at 39% with a 70.4% turnout scenario.
The IRR polled the EFF at 13% in Gauteng, down 5.2 percentage points from February, and 12% with a 70.4% turnout scenario. The poll uses a sample of 2375 registered voters, with researchers out in the field from April 18 to April 25.
The IRR is conducting its final polling up until Sunday May 5, with results available on Monday next week.
News24 reports that the DA’s internal poll shows the opposition party has moved to within six percentage points of the ANC in Gauteng. The ANC is down from 48% to 44% in its latest poll and the DA is up from 38% to 34%.
The final flurry of polls both party and independent comes as the country enters the last stretch toward the key May 8 polls, promising to be the toughest contest for the governing party since 1994.
Natasha Marrian is Mail & Guardian's politics editor. Read more from Natasha Marrian
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