CSIR predicts biggest ANC loss since ‘94

The ANC will see its biggest decrease in support in its history once the vote count has been completed. This is according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the SABC. With over 3-million votes counted the CSIR — in partnership with the SABC — predict that the ANC will only get 57.39% votes.

This is a decline of 5.5% from the 2014 elections where the party attained 62% of the vote. Currently, the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) has counted close to 30% of voting districts and it appears the ANC will see a substantial decline in support.

According to the CSIR, it can make predictions after at least 10% of voting districts have been counted, despite large parts of metropolitan areas having yet to be declared.

“On the provincial forecast, we are a bit worried because there are a lot of fluctuations still happening, but we are predicting that the ANC will get just above or below 50%. But Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal usually come in last, because these areas are quite large,” the CSIR said.

In Gauteng, the research group predicts that the ANC could get just under 50% of the votes, followed by the Democratic Alliance at 28.7%. It is predicted that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will get close to 14%.

Nationally, the Democratic Alliance could also see a decrease of close to 1%, the CSIR and SABC say. The opposition is expected to get 21% of the votes, slightly below the 22.2% of votes it attained in the 2014 elections.

It is predicted that the EFF will get just under 10% of the votes, which is an increase from 6.3% in the 2014 elections.

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Athandiwe Saba
Athandiwe Saba

Athandiwe Saba is a multi award-winning journalist who is passionate about data, human interest issues, governance and everything that isn’t on social media. She is an author, an avid reader and trying to find the answer to the perfect balance between investigative journalism, online audiences and the decline in newspaper sales. It’s a rough world and a rewarding profession.


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