Will South Africa survive the looming gas cliff?

South Africa is rapidly approaching a critical energy juncture with an impending natural gas shortage. This   “gas cliff” is triggered by the imminent end of gas supply from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane gas fields. These fields are linked to South Africa through an 865-kilometre pipeline that has long been a key component of the region’s energy network, connecting with Sasol’s gas infrastructure and supporting major industrial operations in South Africa. From June 2026, this pipeline will cease to supply gas, creating a substantial energy gap and highlighting the country’s urgent need to diversify or increase domestic gas production.

This urgent energy challenge was the central focus of the Natural Gas Symposium 2025, held on 7 May and convened by the African Energy Leadership Centre (AELC), based at Wits Business School (WBS) with support from the Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA). The symposium brought together key players across the energy value chain to discuss the future of South Africa’s gas sector and deliberate on actionable strategies. The event opened with a welcome by Professor Maurice Radebe, Head and Director of WBS, followed by opening remarks from Priscillah Mabelene, former energy executive and Chairperson of the WBS Advisory Board. The keynote address was delivered by Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity and Energy, who underscored the government’s recognition of the gas supply crisis and the need for swift, coordinated action.

“While natural gas is a fossil fuel, it has a lower carbon footprint compared to other energy sources such as coal and oil-derived products, and as such, we believe it can serve as an effective transition fuel towards a zero-carbon economy that we are aspiring to. Natural gas alongside renewable energy resources can assist in our just energy transition,” said Professor David Phaho, Director of the AELC.

The programme comprised a series of thematic sessions examining the challenges, opportunities, and solutions for the oil and gas industry from upstream, midstream, and downstream perspectives. Sessions were moderated by seasoned industry leaders and experienced professionals with insights from leaders in government, academia, industry, and finance. The symposium concluded with a collaborative session on developing a new compact for natural gas in South Africa, where proposed recommendations will be synthesised into a path forward for a robust and inclusive gas sector.

“We don’t want what we saw with loadshedding to happen in the gas sector because a lot of jobs will be lost, and companies will shut down. That is why, as Wits Business School, we said we can’t sit around. There is no longer time for blame-shifting, we need to gather with all stakeholders, fast and efficiently, and that is the purpose of the natural gas symposium,” said Prof Maurice Radebe, the Wits Business Head of School.

Beyond energy, the Mozambique gas fields have also helped strengthen economic ties between Mozambique and South Africa. To support the development of gas infrastructure in South Africa, both governments signed a bilateral agreement to regulate and encourage cross-border gas trade. This treaty set up a joint Gas Commission to manage cooperation and ensure smooth communication between the two nations.

While our energy supply isn’t completely reliant on gas, it remains a vital part of the mix, especially for industries and households needing backup power during load shedding. Gas also plays a strategic role in the shift to cleaner energy. Experts, including scholars like Professor David Serfontein, professor in Industrial Engineering at North-West University, view it as a key “transition fuel” that can bridge the gap as we move toward renewable energy and aim for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, Human, CEO of the IGUASA, said that “it is not a transition fuel, it is our destination”. 

“It’s no longer a question of if—we are at the edge of the cliff,” said Chief Executive of IGUA-SA, Jaco Human, pointing to the narrow timeline South Africa faces to either develop its own gas resources or secure sustainable alternatives. While this situation presents opportunities to rethink and restructure South Africa’s energy mix, it also exposes the limitations of the country’s current infrastructure, investment environment, and the need for better-aligned strategic plans.

“If we don’t secure an alternative to natural gas within South Africa’s energy mix, it will have serious consequences for the country’s economy and industry, particularly our well-established synthetic fuel complexes in Secunda and Sasolburg,” said Dr. Bongani Sayidini, Chief Operating Officer of the Petroleum Agency South Africa (PASA).

Nick Mitchell, chairman of the Onshore Petroleum Association of South Africa (OPASA), echoed the concern, highlighting the financial challenges facing the emerging gas sector. Financing early-stage participation in the future gas industry is extremely difficult. There are very few investors willing to take that risk. “Between 2013 and today, we’ve invested R2 billion, and we are now producing, but it took us 12 years to get here. It’s a complex environment, and customers are equally hesitant to take risks on a new producer,” he said.

“There is gas in South Africa, found by Total Energy and companies such as Vopak SA, producing gas as we speak, and yet people say we have not found gas in this country. I don’t understand when we say we can’t find gas in this country because it was discovered. There has been enviro testing and a proof of concept, but it is not based on air. It is a real production of gas. We have indigenous gas and LNG gas that is being produced, which is the more costly gas,” said the deputy director-general in the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), Tseliso Maqubela

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is natural gas—primarily methane—that has been cooled to approximately -162°C to convert it into a liquid form, making it easier to store and transport over long distances where pipelines are impractical. As a globally traded energy commodity, LNG as mentioned plays a vital role in the transition to cleaner energy., 

In contrast, indigenous gas refers to natural gas extracted from a country’s reserves. Harnessing indigenous gas enhances energy security, reduces dependence on imported fuel, and often proves more cost-effective. 

Other alternatives include solar, wind and nuclear energy. “The production of solar and wind is up and down. You need the solar and wind to make it work; to alternate when the sun goes down, you can transition to the wind. And the idea that the price will double when we get to LNG is not that significant to me because when we use it as a transition energy, we will need to ensure that the costs are insignificant,” said Dawid Serfontein. He went on to say: “Gas is not replacing coal. It is essentially providing the stability we need to support the integration of renewable energy sources, and that stability is crucial given the current unreliability in the uptake of renewables.”

A solution requires investment in a new energy field that requires a lot of infrastructure from discovery to gas pipelines. We are behind on investment decisions since investors are reluctant to invest in the uptake of natural gas because they must invest in building infrastructure, instead of plugging into pre-existing infrastructure. We are talking about US$700 million from the terminal to be able to connect to the existing network. As a result, it will take time before many investors see returns on their investments.

“The gas crisis must be prevented at all costs to ensure we are not exposed to unnecessary risks,” said Aubrey Mzobe, Senior Project Manager at Eskom. “Eskom is committed to implementing gas-to-power solutions, and we are not going to cut corners. While gas-to-power is new to us, we are serious about partnering with market experts to ensure successful delivery. We’re not short on the expertise needed to operate and maintain gas power plants.” He added, “We need to consider the electricity deficit, especially as we begin decommissioning certain power sources due to our emissions commitments, aiming for zero emissions by 2050. “

“I like that there is hope about finding gas, but if you haven’t found it yet, you’re too late. We haven’t found it yet in this wonderful country, not in economic quantities. That doesn’t mean you should stop looking for it. But if you focus your hope on finding gas and meeting the gas cliff in that way, you’re too late,” said global oil and gas consultant Ebbie Hann, who went on to say that South Africa will pay the price for being late.

“In Africa, banks must be far more engaged in South Africa than they would need to be in, say, Sweden. If we are to alleviate unemployment, we must be deeply involved. In Mozambique, we have been significantly engaged in the development of energy,” said Head of Oil and Gas Coverage, Standard Bank, Paul Eardley-Taylor.

South Africa has the financial capacity to fund this. “An LNG terminal in a one-to-two-phase approach can, on paper, be funded by South African banks. If the deal makes sense, it can be completed in a couple of years,” said Keith Webb of Rand Merchant Bank, adding, “We need a programme. We need to communicate this positively, as a means of decarbonisation.”

“Governments look to the next election; businesses look to the end of the year. That’s why it’s hard to find long-term solutions with long-term benefits. We need to think regionally and collaborate—even if it means sacrificing something to gain more in return,” said Hann, the global consultant on oil and gas.

South Africa is transitioning to become a more gas-based country. We currently have 180 gigawatts of gas and are targeting 1,000 gigawatts. Gas is not just a transition fuel—it is our destination. With 600 million GEP, nearly 10% of our GDP is at risk if we fail to act. If we don’t exploit domestic resources and continue to rely on imports, we will pay more than $100 million annually. We need to build the energy bridge now. Our energy dependence will last for the next 20–25 years. The urgent task is to leverage local resources and move swiftly into implementation. Right now, we must create a think tank across different sectors,” said Human, CEO of IGUA-SA.

A dedicated think tank focused on South Africa’s gas sector would play a pivotal role in resolving the country’s ongoing energy crisis. By bringing together experts from academia, industry, and government, such a body could offer data-driven insights, conduct targeted research, and develop coherent policy recommendations tailored to the national context. Think tanks have the unique ability to work independently of political and commercial interests, allowing them to identify bottlenecks in the gas value chain, evaluate environmental and economic trade-offs, and propose sustainable, long-term solutions. Most importantly, they can bridge the gap between theory and practice, ensuring that academic research is translated into actionable strategies that support energy security, industrial development, and a just energy transition.

This gas cliff presents a significant opportunity for socio-economic development, from infrastructure to skills development. “We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Just as coal transformed the energy sector, gas can do the same,” said Human.

The key lies in financial instruments, because currently, everyone is looking at each other, wondering who will bear the cost. We need the government and the private sector to come together. The prioritisation of the energy mix depends on managing risk and finances. Yet, processes are unnecessarily delayed. For example, the IKapa Energy opinions were drafted in 2012, and the same questions they asked back then remain unanswered today,” said Chairperson of South African Oil & Gas Alliance (SAOGA), Craig Morkel.

“There’s a crude oil line from Secunda to Empangeni. Phase one is fit for purpose for gas-to-power development,” said Head of Business Development & Customer Engagement at Transnet Kresen Naicker. “The Richards Bay 2-gigawatt plant will consume 2 million tons of gas. Its lifecycle is 25 years. We are converting diesel to gas, adding 884 kilowatts to the grid. We’re also working with Sasol on a 1-gigawatt gas-to-power plant in Secunda. In total, we’re talking about 5 gigawatts of gas-to-power plants.” The Richards Bay project is already under development. Initiated in 2026, it covers 104 hectares with leasing agreements currently under negotiation. The concept designs are said to be complete, and the project has received approvals, transmission lines, and a fully integrated project schedule, all in place.

Southern Africa’s Gas Future Hinges on Regional Collaboration, Say Industry Experts 

Mozambique’s role in the future of natural gas supply to Southern Africa remains underappreciated, despite its growing importance. According to the Head of oil and gas at Standard Bank Eardley-Taylor, the country is set to produce several million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) next year, —equivalent to millions of barrels of oil. This increase in regional production could reduce energy costs for South Africa and provide a more secure supply. “Mozambique is extremely important for South Africa,” he said.

Sasol, one of South Africa’s leading energy companies, confirmed that it is actively exploring opportunities in Mozambique. The company holds exploration acreage there and has already invested over $1 billion. “We are working closely with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) to ensure that developments are fair and equitable for all stakeholders,” said Executive Vice President: Business Building, Strategy and Technology at Sasol, Dr Sarushen Pillay.

South Africa is also eyeing collaborative opportunities with Namibia. Gas was discovered on the South African side in the Ibhubesi gas field as early as the 2000s, but it remains undeveloped due to a lack of market demand. Meanwhile, Namibia has made significant offshore oil discoveries and is emerging as a key player in the region’s energy future. “We have been producing offshore since 1992, and we are encouraging Namibia not to be deterred. Namibia and South Africa share gas resources, so collaboration between the two countries is vital,” said Dr Bongani Sayidini, Chief Executive at PASA.

According to Sayidini, ten production tests by different operators are underway in Namibia, with oil production estimated to begin around 2030. By that time, Namibia is expected to generate billions of dollars in headline cash flow from its oil developments. Mozambique is on a similar trajectory, with projected earnings in the hundreds of millions. “These are examples South Africa should be following,”.

One industry representative who recently visited Namibia noted the involvement of major international players such as Total, Chevron, and Cape Town-based Rhino Resources. “I was hoping to hear that Petrol SA is part of something. Putting skin in the game,” said Sayidini. 

The energy sector is drawing comparisons between South Africa’s current situation and that of India two decades ago, when it stood at a similar “gas cliff.” Today, India has a robust gas infrastructure. Industry experts believe South Africa can benefit from international partnerships to exchange expertise and develop a local gas ecosystem. “There is significant investment on the horizon to support South Africa,” said Harish Kumar, representative of the Indian Consulate participating in the symposium.

Gas Industry Urged to Collaborate and Clarify Policy Regulation Amid Growing Energy Demands

“The role of a regulator and policymaker is not just to enforce existing rules. Our responsibility is to enable the gas sector to flourish,” said Tseliso Maqubela, Deputy Director-General at the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. “Safety regulators are the ones focused on enforcement—we are here to support growth through policy and regulation.”

Addressing the looming “gas cliff,” Maqubela emphasised the need to broaden participation. “We need to make the circle bigger. The gas experts are here, the regulators are here—but some key players are still missing.”

One of those missing, he noted, is the Competition Commission. “There shouldn’t be a gap between the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) and the Competition Commission. If the two are not aligned, it will create confusion in the market. We need all stakeholders on the same page.”

Sayidini warned against leaving the symposium with the impression that coordination is lacking. “We had good coordination once—it worked. Somewhere along the line, we lost it. Now we need to rebuild it. And it’s not only up to politicians to do that.”

Concerns were raised about South Africa’s energy readiness for the near future. “Some of us are very worried about 2025. Just look at Eskom’s current fleet and project forward to 2050—how many new plants do we need, and do we have the time and resources to build the systems we need?” said Tseliso Maqubela, deputy director-general in the DMRE, Tseliso Maqubela. Maqubela also highlighted frustration around the slow pace of legislative reform. “Expecting people to invest when laws are under consideration is simply not fair.”

“National government should consider a standard response on the country’s energy policy, especially about our Paris commitment, for the investors to include their responses when projects are challenged on a policy basis. Every day, the energy upstream is in court partly because of the lack of clarity on policy regulations,” said Dr Phindile Masangane,  General Manager, Clean Energy Division at Africa Energy Corporation and former CEO of PASA. “Afford the upstream oil and gas industry the benefits of a strategic integrated project as it is so designed. If not, at least adhere to legislated timelines and frames. It is not new for South Africa to introduce a new energy career in gas generation. We have done it with renewables, at high costs,” she added. 

The National Development Plan, Integrated Energy Plan, Gas Master Plan, and Liquid Fuels Master Plan. All these are in flux. That is not the complication. The complication is that some of these plans, such as Marine Spatial planning, the Transition to a low carbon future, net zero in 2050 and the Oceans Economy Master plan. “The gas master plan is in contradiction with the marine master plan. The gas master plan includes the development of the marine social planning, and the marine spatial planning says that you need to not build gas energy pipelines,” explains Masangane.

She went on to say that “national government should consider a standard response on the country’s energy policy especially in relation to our Paris commitment, for the investors to include their responses when projects are challenged on a policy basis.”

There is growing support for smart gas infrastructure and monitoring technologies, along with community-based green gas initiatives and small-scale refineries. “This presents a huge opportunity for local enterprise and inclusive economic participation,” Maqubela added.

A call was made for more research in energy economics and the formation of a cross-disciplinary working group to develop a coordinated national response. “We need everyone in the room to ask: where do we begin?”

Finally, the hub pricing approach, approved by NERSA in 2020, was acknowledged as a step toward market stability. It emerged following the 2019 Constitutional Court ruling, which prompted a shift from volatile international benchmark pricing to a more locally grounded, cost-of-supply model. This approach uses data from domestic cost studies and peer gas hubs to set prices that reflect South Africa’s economic context.

Gas Sector Faces Critical Challenges—But Opportunities Also Emerge

The development of South Africa’s gas industry is gaining momentum, but it is not without major challenges. As stakeholders from the government, private sector, and civil society gathered to reflect on the path forward, the conversation revealed key concerns—alongside real opportunities for long-term impact.

Long Delays and Unrealistic Expectations

Delays in government decision-making carry a steep economic cost, especially when it comes to high-stakes, long-term investments like those required for South Africa’s gas industry. As Nick Mitchell, CEO of the Onshore Petroleum Association of South Africa (OPASA), explains, recovering a R2 billion investment over a 12-year horizon demands more than capital—it requires stable, consistent, and timely partnerships across the public and private sectors. However, the current pace of decision-making in government, where implementation can lag by up to three years after a policy is approved, poses a serious threat to investor confidence and economic momentum. When each stage of a strategic project is held up by administrative inertia, the country loses out on job creation, revenue, energy security, and international competitiveness.

Beyond the bureaucracy, unrealistic energy forecasts and poor planning compound these delays. As Dr Bruce Young of Wits Business School warns, misguided projections lead to wasted resources, misplaced efforts, and inflated expectations—ultimately creating a climate of uncertainty that discourages long-term investment. Meanwhile, environmental concerns, while valid, often stem from voices outside the country, some of whom advocate against gas despite its use in their economies. As Professor Samson Mampweli points out, these double standards complicate local development. The challenge, then, is to craft a balanced approach that fast-tracks decisions, strengthens policy consistency, and grounds environmental dialogue in South Africa’s specific socio-economic realities. Failure to act decisively today risks leaving the nation in a prolonged state of energy vulnerability tomorrow.

Avoiding the Gas Cliff and Building the Future

Despite these obstacles, the gas sector offers economic and developmental opportunities—if approached wisely.

Gas should be promoted as part of the broader clean energy ecosystem. “Burning gas is relatively clean, but extracting it is not. Still, this is our chance to position gas as an enabler of other clean energy sources. It’s not about gas vs renewables—it’s about building an ecosystem,” said Professor Dawid Serfontein.

Dr Sarushen Pillay added, “The gas cliff presents an opportunity for South Africa to diversify its energy products. It’s a matter of national safety and resilience.”

The symposium highlighted the importance of regional thinking and smart capital allocation. “There’s global competition for investment. We must quantify our energy deficit clearly to attract the right resources. We’re anticipating investments of R7 billion. The policy task is to channel financial support to address downstream, midstream, and upstream challenges,” Human, CEO of IGUASA. 

The midstream is the weakest link in the gas value chain—critical infrastructure like import terminals, pipelines, and distribution systems are either underdeveloped or stuck in endless feasibility assessments. Legislation has also opened new doors. A recent law passed by the President aims to encourage diverse participation, particularly of Black South Africans, although there is the concern that the benefits may largely go to the elite. Jurie Swart from BGC captured the moment plainly: “The gas cliff has been the catalyst that finally got us moving.”

Incentives, Innovation and Inclusive Growth

“We do not have sufficient time to have any gap, we are on a critical path and the actions need to be accelerated. If we accelerate, I am confident that we will be able to deliver our commitment to South Africans in terms of ensuring that we secure jobs,” said Chairperson of the WBS Advisory Board, Priscillah Mabelane.  The government has a key role to play in incentivising industrial customers—those who buy, store, and distribute gas—to adopt new models. “This is a huge opportunity for community-driven initiatives, green gas technologies, and small-scale local enterprises,” said Yershen Pilllay CEO of The Chemical Industries Education & Training Sector Authority (CHIETA).

Beyond infrastructure, the sector also holds potential for socio-economic development through job creation and skills training. To unlock these opportunities, collaboration must be strengthened, expectations aligned with reality, and regulatory frameworks clarified. With urgency building, the path forward depends on turning this critical juncture into coordinated action.

If implemented correctly, a national gas development project has the potential to become a powerful driver of economic growth and employment in South Africa. With the official unemployment rate standing at 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025, and a recorded decline of 54,000 people from the labour force, the urgency to stimulate job creation cannot be overstated. By focusing on local capacity-building, infrastructure development, and industry partnerships, this project could create thousands of direct and indirect jobs—particularly in technical, engineering, environmental, and logistics fields tied to the gas value chain.

The implementation strategy must prioritise inclusivity, especially for women and young people who continue to face structural barriers to employment. These groups should not only be beneficiaries of job opportunities but also active participants in the project’s planning, research, and execution. Investing in their skills and ensuring meaningful representation in leadership roles will not only reduce unemployment but also secure a diverse talent pipeline to sustain the long-term success of the initiative. Inclusive growth is not optional—it is essential to building a resilient energy future that reflects the demographic realities and aspirations of the country.

The role of research as a solution

According to Innovation Director at iCatalysis Hub Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, Dr Rendani Mamphiswana, one of the core issues is the absence of incentives for academics to engage in impactful research. “Academics are not incentivised to conduct research,” he notes, highlighting that scholarly work often prioritises publication over practical application. This disconnect has led to a lack of exploration in key areas—most notably, gas.

Despite South Africa’s potential gas reserves, there is minimal academic engagement with the sector. Basic, advanced, and experimental research in this field is largely neglected. Even more concerning is the fragmented nature of national energy policies. “Policies are all over the place and not aligned,” Dr Mamphiswana observes. Without policy cohesion and clear direction, research lacks a structured framework to follow.

He calls for a shift from academic curiosity to research aimed at addressing societal and industrial challenges. This means focusing research efforts on uncovering bottlenecks in the gas value chain and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them.

Professor Samson Mamphweli echoes this call, questioning what academics do with the knowledge they generate. “We just put research findings in libraries,” he says. Rather than archiving potentially transformative knowledge, researchers should be using it to raise awareness, pinpoint industry problems, and devise practical solutions, especially in the energy sector.

Despite these challenges, Mamphweli emphasises the importance of applied research, even acknowledging its slow nature. The process of conducting research, developing technology, and implementing solutions takes time, but without strategic direction and commitment, even this slow progress risks coming to a halt. “Encourage researchers, when submitting proposals, to identify industry problems,” suggests  Mamphweli. This implies a future in which research proposals are not judged solely on academic merit, but also on their potential impact on pressing challenges—like those in the gas sector. This transformation would also require institutions and funding bodies to prioritise applied research with clear, measurable outcomes. Universities and policymakers alike must embrace a culture of solution-driven inquiry, aligning research outputs with national developmental goals.

South Africa’s ability to respond effectively depends heavily on funding. While international examples from Mozambique, India, and Namibia show what’s possible, financial institutions must step up. The 2025 Natural Gas Symposium made one point abundantly clear: South Africa has the resources, the interest, and even the talent to build a thriving gas economy—but not the luxury of time. Delays in infrastructure, policy, and decision-making will cost billions and compromise energy security. The country must now shift from planning to execution, from fragmented efforts to coordinated strategy, and from caution to commitment. The gas cliff is real, but so is the opportunity to bridge it—sustainably, inclusively, and urgently.

The gas sector’s real crisis isn’t a lack of skills—it’s a tangle of red tape, shaky finances, and poor commercial strategy. What’s needed now are leaders who can cut through the noise, think beyond silos, and reject over-optimistic estimations that create false hope, and are not rooted in market research. Professor David Phaho, director of the African Energy Leadership Centre at WBS echoed this urgency, calling for a sharper focus on applied research in energy economics and smart infrastructure. To back it all up, a national gas apprenticeship programme was proposed—designed to build a future-ready workforce and keep South Africa from falling off the gas cliff. The so-called “gas cliff” must be addressed immediately through local production, infrastructure development, and decisive policy action.