/ 12 January 2025

Is SADC inaction fuelling Mozambique’s post-election unrest?

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Barricades burn on the streets after the elections in Mozambique. The unrest began after the Constitutional Council confirmed the election of Daniel Chapo, candidate of the Frelimo party, which has been in power for 49 years, as the new president. with 65 percent of the vote. (Photo by -/picture alliance via Getty Images)

While much of the world celebrated Christmas and New Year and people spent time with their loved ones, Mozambique was and is still burning as a result of violent protests triggered by a disputed election on 9 October last year. 

The opposition took the matter to court.

The Mozambique Constitutional Council issued a verdict on the dispute on 22 December, finding that the election results had been tampered with and that there were irregularities.

But strangely, after having done a partial redistribution of the results, the council declared that the irregularities did not affect the overall result, which it said, was a victory for the ruling party, Frelimo, for both the presidential and parliamentary elections. 

As expected, the riots only escalated. To date more than 130 people, mostly civilians, have been killed. The Mozambican economy is at a standstill.

The country’s ports, an important logistic supply chain for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are clogged and the key border with South Africa operates on and off. 

The response from SADC, which observed the election, has been mute. 

On Christmas Day, the chairperson of the African Union Commission had to issue a brief but significant statement. It expressed condolences for the numerous deaths and encouraged the Mozambique security services to exercise restraint in the use of force.

But hidden in this statement is annoyance over the SADC’s nonchalance. 

The give-away is the concluding paragraph, which reads: “The chairperson reaffirms the AU’s commitment to collaborate with the Mozambican government and national stakeholders, as well as the SADC towards putting a stop to the violence and safeguarding of constitutional democracy in Mozambique.” 

Rather polite and well-intended, but this is diplomatic-speak for asking: why is SADC silent when there is this urgent need to put a stop to violence and bring the contestants to the table and settle the dispute?

The AU Commission on its own has no power to intervene; that can only be done by the relevant institution led by the AU members themselves. Respecting the principle of subsidiarity requires that the relevant regional organisation, in this case SADC, should lead the process.

But the relevant SADC body in charge of this process is the SADC Organ Troika, which is led by Tanzania’s president. The ruling party is Chama cha Mapinduzi, a liberation war movement and a staunch historical ally of Frelimo.

What is playing out is not blind solidarity among liberation war movements. Rather, it can be seen as hubristic arrogance and self-preservation. Tanzania’s president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, is facing an election this year. The political environment in Tanzania is bitterly contested.

Tanzania staying silent while Mozambique burns is a form of self-preservation, which it hoped would morph into a policy of non-interference in SADC countries’ election disputes. 

As early as a week after the election in Mozambique, Tanzania refused to condemn the killing of two representatives of the opposition, and instead issued a tepid statement urging calm — which was rewarded with an explosion of protests a day after it was issued. 

Potential mitigation measures for the situation in Mozambique were again put before the SADC leaders in Harare in November 2024.

At that meeting it was the Tanzanians, with the support of the Zimbabweans, who strenuously put down those proposals and instead invited the out-going Mozambican president, Filipe Nyusi, to present a briefing on the situation in Mozambique.

The Mozambicans were hoping for positive action or words from the SADC leaders. Instead they issued a communique “noting” the briefing that Nyusi had given them. Nothing else.

Tanzania’s strategy won. This presumably will be rewarded by non-interference in the inevitable event of an election dispute in Tanzania. 

The stance is both short-sighted and a put-down of SADC norms. The unequivocal message that SADC, through the chairperson of the Organ, is sending is: Mozambique, you are on your own. 

This is quite apart from the obvious fact that there are self-interested Frelimo die-hards who do not want any SADC interventions unless they are — just as keeping quiet is — designed to support Frelimo in the dispute. The dynamics in the SADC Organ Troika offer a sad prognosis of the future.

Zambia, having been in the position of chair of the Organ for the most part of 2023, was viciously maligned for allegedly being biased against Zanu-PF, another liberation war movement, when Zimbabwe went through another disputed election. Having become the outgoing chairperson of the Organ, Zambia has taken a low profile.

Malawi, being the incoming chair of the Organ, would presumably have been expected to be more assertive because President Lazarus Chakwera knows about being a victim of election rigging and the value of credible domestic institutions and international election observation missions — the latter, including SADC, which all let down the people of Malawi in 2019. 

But, as part of the Organ Troika that is supposed to be seized with the Mozambique tragedy, Malawi is missing from the scene. 

This bodes ill for the prospects of a robust SADC in 2025, especially in the context of credible elections. 

Malawi too is expected to hold elections in 2025. Both Malawi and Tanzania sit on the SADC Organ Troika.

The crisis in Mozambique underscores the fragility of democratic institutions and the challenges of fostering regional solidarity in Southern Africa. The tragedy in Mozambique serves as a stark reminder that silence and inaction in the face of electoral disputes come at a human and economic costs.

But there is hope. 

On 5 January, SADC held an extraordinary virtual summit to address Mozambique’s post-election political and security situation. The summit mandated the SADC Panel of Elders, supported by Troika member states and the SADC Secretariat, to work with Mozambique’s government and opposition leaders and report back by 15 January. 

One hopes this initiative yields meaningful outcomes. While SADC’s track record on implementing its mandates has had its problems, the current engagement in Mozambique offers an opportunity to break the cycle of unrest and pave the way for sustainable solutions through concerted regional collaboration.

Dr Craig Moffat is a former diplomat and EM Hoza is a serving diplomat.

4 Replies to “Is SADC inaction fuelling Mozambique’s post-election unrest?”

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