Former president Jacob Zuma. Photo: Supplied
Former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party could, at best, shave a few political points off the ANC’s support base, according to a new poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF).
The SRF — a thinktank headed by former South African Institute of Race Relations chief executive Frans Cronje — suggests that Zuma has a high favourability score (63.1%) among registered voters in his home province, KwaZulu-Natal.
The ANC’s provincial leadership has historically backed Zuma in his internal party battles. But this relationship has soured, despite numerous attempts by the party’s KwaZulu-Natal leadership to keep Zuma on side ahead of this year’s crucial elections, which could see the ANC lose the province.
In October, an SRF poll found that ANC support in KwaZulu-Natal had fallen sharply, with the Inkatha Freedom Party having tightened its grip on the province.
The MK party, which was officially launched by Zuma late last year, throws a new spanner in the works for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.
The former president’s favourability score on a national level is considerably lower at 28.9%, according to the new poll, which gives the caveat that favourability does not easily translate into electoral support in the absence of an extremely strong party infrastructure.
According to the SRF, its national data is based on a survey of 1 412 geographically and demographically representative registered voters. That survey has a national margin of error of 5%. The provincial survey, which has a 3% margin of error, was based on the responses of 2 432 registered voters.
The poll also suggests that ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa is less popular among KwaZulu-Natal voters than his predecessors. According to the poll, among black voters, Zuma’s presidency is considered on par with Nelson Mandela’s in terms of its benefit to the province.
The Constitution, as well as his criminal record, prevents the former head of state from serving a third term as president.