G20: President Cyril Ramaphosa will host leaders from 42 countries at the two-day G20 leaders’ summit in
Johannesburg this weekend. Photo: GCIS
Ahead of the two-day G20 leaders’ summit in Johannesburg this weekend, leading business, political and economic analysts have thrown their weight behind South Africa to deliver a successful event despite the absence of global leaders Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
The US president is boycotting the summit, while high-level officials will represent the Chinese and Russian presidents.
South Africa will still be able to issue a consensus declaration on Sunday, reinforcing the importance of global multilateralism in driving world affairs, the analysts believe. Trump’s administration said it would oppose any G20 declaration beyond the chair’s statement.
With South Africa seemingly unruffled by the US stance, analysts told the Mail & Guardian that Trump’s absence posed no threat to an expected declaration, which has been marked by a year of deliberations.
With 42 countries confirmed to attend, China, Russia, Mexico and Argentina will be represented at the premier, ministerial and sherpa level, rather than the president.
International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola has shrugged this off as “not a snub”.
Rothschild & Co South Africa executive chair Martin Kingston said there was “significant support for issues being taken forward under South Africa’s leadership”.
The summit was “a culmination of a year’s work across a variety of issues that need to be addressed individually and collectively”, he said, adding: “Without the US, I am sure that there will nevertheless be a declaration charting progress and objectives.”
He said South Africa’s standing was enhanced by its successful presidency of both the G20 and B20, a G20 dialogue forum for the global business community.
“The country has demonstrated its continuing ability to secure alignment of differing constituencies on significant initiatives. It has placed Africa firmly and correctly at the centre of the global agenda,” he said.
“As a member of G20 — its outgoing president, a crucial representative of Africa, the Global South and a number of critical multilateral structures — South Africa should attend the next summit in America.”
Independent political analyst Sandile Swana concurred, saying the G20 declaration “usually follows the rules or guidelines of the G20 – agreed upon by consensus”.
“The US and South Africa have a conflict relative to the [International Court of Justice] ICJ case lodged by SA against Israel over the situation in Palestine, with the US supporting Israel politically and militarily. That bone of contention has led to the US using the G20 to fight its individual battle with SA – something we have to accept,” Swana said.
“The requirement for a consensus statement is there, and the US has withdrawn in the hope that there will not be a declaration. Positions that South Africa has adopted at the G20 are supported by the European Union, the African Union and Brics countries. It is known how the declaration should be worded,” he said.
“It would be prudent for leaders attending the summit to issue the declaration, in line with the principle of multilateralism – if they are serious about ending unilateralism.”
He said the absence of the Chinese and Russian presidents “changes nothing because they are adequately represented and are already in agreement with SA”. Swana added that Argentina was “becoming a negative force in moving away from other Latin American countries – in adopting a right-wing position”.
“It is not unusual from time to time to find some countries in Latin America being run by puppets of the US – Argentina being one of them.”
The test of the G20 will be on whether this year’s summit can build upon last year’s success and establish a strong foundation for the future, policy analyst Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said.
“The absence of Donald Trump or anyone from his administration may help participating countries find common ground for multilateral cooperation. At the negotiations, the focus on debt relief and mutually-beneficial economic cooperation is pushing for channelling support into debt-free finance,” Nyembezi said.
“This summit will either force the Global North to accept that it can and must pay its fair share in promoting multilateral relations, without over-reliance on the US or any other superpower. The Global North can no longer watch wealthy nations continuing to wring their hands as international institutions burn.
“Most likely, each participating country will offer and get something from the summit and optimise on realising shared goals. This is against the background of a lingering uncertainty over the success of a US-convened next summit in advancing gains from previous summits.”
Nyembezi said the gathering served as “a forum where the concerns of the developing world can be expressed in the full glare of media attention and relayed back to civil society in the Global North”.
“Different streams involving various sectors in the preparation period played a crucial role in highlighting the political and economic details of challenges and opportunities in South Africa. These range from technology development, agribusiness opportunities, transport projects and mining operations, to discussions on securing peace in strife-torn areas, health, food security and debt relief.”
Professor Patrick Bond of the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Social Change said he expected a watered-down version of the summit declaration.
“The chair’s statement by President Cyril Ramaphosa can be issued without the US. But it will always be understood as a reflection of Washington’s bullying – something deserving a debate on whether to vote Trump off the G20 island, at least until 2029 when he has left office,” Bond said. “There is a need to impose sanctions on Washington, including his 2026 G20 in Miami.”
Bond cited Trump’s walking out of the UN climate and health institutions, military imperialism, including supporting Israel’s war on Gaza, threats to invade Nigeria and Venezuela, pushing for the Elon Musk-driven cutting of aid to 14 million people – covering food, medicine and climate change support as well as damaging world trade in principle to benefit his cronies.
“The international boycott of Musk cars and X.com is a good model. Having benefited from such sanctions in the anti-apartheid struggle, South Africa is well placed to call out Trump and mobilise allies — but G20 elites will probably still be divided-and-ruled,” said Bond.
The G20 is about forging agreements, managing geopolitical tensions, and creating global solidarity, noted economic lecturer Frederich Kirsten. “The signing of the declaration will depend on leaders attending the summit, and the US does not have the power to stop that,” Kirsten said.