Moment of truth: EFF leader Julius Malema says the charges against him are politically motivated. Photo: EFF
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF )is bracing for a politically fraught period as party leader Julius Malema awaits sentencing in a firearm case on Friday, a moment that could test the party’s reliance on its founding president and reshape its internal dynamics ahead of 2026 local government elections.
Last year the East London Magistrate’s Court convicted Malema on charges related to the discharge of a firearm at the EFF’s fifth anniversary rally in Mdantsane in 2018. He had fired a rifle into the air while addressing supporters. His bodyguard and co-accused Adriaan Snyman was acquitted.
Malema said he would appeal the conviction in a case he called politically motivated. The state argued that he recklessly endangered lives.
The court is scheduled to hand down sentencing on Friday. Possible penalties the EFF leader faces range from a fine or suspended sentence to imprisonment.
The party this week reiterated its rejection of the judgment and confirmed it was appealing it. An official told the Mail & Guardian: “We are confident that a higher court that is less emotional will come to a completely different conclusion based on the merits given to the magistrate during this trial. We have to appeal this nonsensical judgement.”
The appeal process will probably delay finality. The conviction has prompted questions about what the out- come could mean for a party whose political identity has, for more than a decade, been inseparable from Malema.
Courts can impose a suspended sentence, depending on the mitigating factors, said Shadi Maganoe, a law lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand.
“Courts have discretion when deciding sentences and they often consider factors such as whether the person has prior convictions, shows remorse or poses a limited risk to the public,” Maganoe told the M&G.
Under Section 47(1)(e) of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, any person who has been convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine is dis- qualified from serving as a member of parliament and barred from hold- ing public office for five years after the completion of the sentence.
“Under the Firearms Control Act, discharging a firearm in a public area or in a way that could endanger people carries a prison term of up to 15 years, though there is no manda- tory minimum,” Maganoe said.
“Whether the sentence is custo- dial or suspended will determine if he (Malema) keeps his parliamen- tary seat. Until a decision is made, the legal and political consequences remain significant.”
A custodial sentence of less than 12 months or a suspended sentence is a more plausible fate for Malema, senior legal practitioner Ulrich Roux said, “given the circumstances of the
offence, although the court could hand down a harsher penalty if aggravating factors are present.
A recent application of the 12 months or more rule occurred when the Constitutional Court held in May 2024 that former president Jacob Zuma was not eligible to stand for parliament because his 15‐month prison sentence in 2021 for contempt of court triggered Section 47(1)(e) of the Constitution and barred him from becoming a legislator.
Zuma had argued that his sentence was ultimately less than 12 months because in August 2023 he had benefitted from a general remission extended by President Cyril Ramaphosa,. This was shortly after the courts ruled his early release on medical parole illegal.
Zuma served less than three months of the original sentence imposed on him. The Electoral Commission of South Africa said Ramaphosa did not have the power to rewrite a court sentence.
The appeal process provides Malema with avenues to challenge the conviction and could delay the final outcome for months, said another senior lawyer, Zola Majavu.
“The more likely scenario is a request for bail to be extended while the appeal process runs its course,” Majavu told the M&G.
Since its formation in 2013, the EFF has been built around Malema’s leadership. He dominates public messaging, sets the political tone and remains the primary link between the party and its supporters.
That centralisation has delivered discipline and electoral growth but has left the party exposed.
Senior sources say the Red Berets are facing heightened uncertainty because no other leader is seen as having comparable expertise to the commander-in-chief (CIC), as Malema is referred to in the party.
The sources said a lack of a clearly defined succession plan and the pos- sibility of Malema receiving a custo- dial sentence has heightened aware- ness of the leadership gap, even as the party publicly presents a united front around him.
“The atmosphere is tense because we support the CIC. The main problem is if he is sent to prison, the party will need a leader of comparable ability to help us perform in the local government elections,” a senior leader who declined to be named said.
“But because we have centred everything on the CIC, we now face a challenge. An EFF led by deputy leader Gordrich Gardee is a dead EFF. This brings the conversation of succession to the forefront.”
The EFF’s immediate strategy is to fight the conviction through the courts. Party leaders have framed the judgment as irrational and politically charged, reinforcing a long-standing narrative that Malema is targeted because of his confrontational poli- tics and criticism of the state.
That framing is expected to intensify as the appeal moves forward, with the party probably mobilising supporters around claims of institutional bias and selective justice.
Legal experts have said this is a strategy designed to consolidate the party’s core support base, although it risks alienating voters who are uneasy about leaders facing criminal convictions and sceptical about claims that the judiciary is driven by emotion or politics.
Behind the scenes, the sentencing has forced senior figures to prepare for contingencies. The deputy presi- dent, secretary general and national chairperson are expected to play a larger role in steering the party if Malema’s ability to campaign or appear in parliament be curtailed.
However, any move towards collective leadership in the EFF carries its own risks. The party has historically relied on a tight command structure. Opening space for competing centres of authority could expose factional tension that has been suppressed.
The case comes as the party prepares for the 2026 local govern- ment elections. It is targeting gains in metros.
“The main problem is that we have framed the election campaign around him,” the EFF source said. “We are united in that the courts will be fair in granting us an appeal because the EFF depends on it.
The leadership under Gardee would not be able to achieve what we have achieved under the CIC.”