Johannesburg's mayoral race is shaping up as a contest between political veterans promising to fix a city struggling with failing infrastructure and basic services and smaller parties hoping to secure enough support to influence who governs it after the November local elections.
The ANC has yet to announce its mayoral candidate, but has identified three possible contenders: incumbent mayor Dada Morero, deputy mayor Loyiso Masuku and Reverend Frank Chikane.
The African Independent Congress has fielded current Johannesburg council speaker Margaret Arnolds, while the IFP has chosen MMC for Human Settlements Mlungisi Mabasa.
The MK Party has announced former Midvaal mayor Bongani Baloyi, while Bishop Dulton Adams will represent the ACDP. The Freedom Front Plus has fielded former MMC Franco de Lange.
The crowded field reflects the fragmentation of Johannesburg's politics. On Wednesday, the Electoral Commission announced that 80 parties would contest Johannesburg, more than any other major metro.
Political analyst professor Sipho Seepe said, "Effectively, the parties are fighting for a share of the resources that the Johannesburg metro has."
He said controlling Johannesburg carried political and economic significance beyond the municipality itself. "If your party runs that, it also means far greater visibility. Johannesburg is almost the centre of gravity in terms of political interest and also a centre of gravity for business interests and it is also the one where resources are likely to be concentrated."
The city's prominence also helps explain why the DA opted for a nationally recognisable figure in Helen Zille rather than a newcomer, Seepe said.
Zille is the DA's most experienced candidate, having previously served as mayor of Cape Town and premier of the Western Cape.
Her campaign has focused on deteriorating infrastructure and basic services, positioning her as a hands-on administrator who can restore functionality to a city plagued by unreliable water and electricity, deteriorating roads and other service delivery failures.
Political analyst professor Dirk Kotzé of Unisa's Department of Political Sciences said Zille's appeal was likely to centre less on ideology than on her experience and ability to make municipal systems work.
He said her focus on areas such as Soweto and Alexandra was also an attempt to broaden the DA's appeal beyond its traditional support base.
"What she can give is a lot of energy, driving force, focusing on the managerial side of the position of mayor," Kotzé said, adding that her pitch was aimed at voters who were "ideologically neutral" and primarily wanted a government capable of fixing the city's problems.
For Herman Mashaba, the race is a return to familiar territory. The ActionSA leader served as Johannesburg mayor from 2016 to 2019 before resigning from the DA and later founding ActionSA.
Kotzé said Mashaba's previous tenure gave him an important recognition advantage in Johannesburg, where ActionSA has performed better than in some other major metros.
Kotzé said Mashaba's approach during his mayoral tenure had been highly politicised and his ability to deliver would depend heavily on the strength of the team around him.
The ATM's parliamentary leader Vuyo Zungula has been touted as its frontrunner, offering a different political proposition. Unlike Zille and Mashaba, he has never served as a municipal mayor.
The ATM is positioning itself around economic transformation and township economies. Kotzé said Zungula faced a steeper path to the mayor's office but could become relevant if the next council is fragmented.
"There's no realistic chance for him to become the mayor except if he is one of the kingmakers in the coalition set-up," Kotzé said.
RISE Mzansi's Lukhona Mnguni has centred his campaign on restoring the integrity of Johannesburg's institutions and physical infrastructure, with a focus on corruption, political patronage, accountability and merit-based appointments. He also proposes affordable housing and more equitable economic and spatial opportunities.
For the EFF, Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng is campaigning on expanded public healthcare, economic relief and greater municipal control over services. Her platform includes 24-hour clinics, writing off municipal debt for registered indigent households and insourcing municipal workers.
Build One South Africa's Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster is focusing on execution, financial discipline and restoring basic services. Her priorities include auditing the city's finances, cutting waste and directing public money towards essential infrastructure, while tackling tender fraud and supporting township businesses.
But beyond the individual candidates, Kotzé said the race was unfolding against a changing political landscape in which voters could increasingly be divided between those motivated by party ideology and those primarily concerned with whether the government could deliver functioning services.
"There are two types of voters now in this election," Kotzé said. "There are voters who say, I don't care so much about what the politics of political parties are, or ideology by implication. I want a government that can fix the problems."
This could benefit candidates such as Zille, whose campaign focused heavily on the managerial side of local government. But another constituency cared about ideological differences, particularly around the role of the state and private sector in the economy.
Kotzé said parties such as the MKP, the ATM and EFF remained more strongly positioned along ideological lines, while others were adopting a more pragmatic approach.