With more than two million registered voters, eThekwini is one of the most closely watched municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal.
The November 4 local government elections could reshape the political landscape of the province’s only metro, with the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) seeking to translate its support into control of the council.
In the 2021 municipal elections, the ANC lost its outright majority and had to rely on smaller parties, including the Abantu Batho Congress, to retain control. Now, the party faces a challenge from the MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, which emerged as the biggest party in eThekwini in the 2024 general elections.
The metro has 69 or so political parties contesting 112 municipal wards. Polls by Ipsos, Mark Data, Sabi and Social Research Foundation point to the MK Party emerging as the largest party. Ipsos puts its support above 50%, while other polls, apart from the Social ResearchFoundation’s, place it at just over 40%. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is also polling strongly. The ANC is projected to slip to third place.
The DA has also angled its campaign around the MK Party, saying it was an electoral threat that needed to be curtailed.
Dr Zakhele Shamase, a University of Zululand academic and contemporary politics expert, said the outcome would be close.
“While the MK Party looks set to be the biggest party in eThekwini metro, it might not receive the required majority to govern alone. It will need [the] support of smaller parties.”
Political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu, a University of KwaZulu-Natal lecturer, said it remained unclear whether the MK Party would secure an outright majority.
He identified ActionSA as a possible kingmaker, pointing to its stance on illegal migration.
He said an MK Party, ActionSA and Economic Freedom Fighters coalition was possible if the MK Party fell short of a majority.
The DA has made stopping an MK Party-led administration central to its campaign. Dean Macpherson, the party’s KwaZulu-Natal chairperson, said polling showed the DA was the only party large enough to prevent an MK Party mayor.
“What the polling shows is that the DA is now the only party big enough to stop an MKP mayor in eThekwini, which would be disastrous for the city and its residents, which has suffered so much already,” he said.
At the DA’s final election rally in Durban at the weekend, provincial leader Sithembiso Ngema attacked the MK Party’s record and leadership. “Voting for the MK is a waste, a complete and utter waste.”
He questioned the party’s leadership changes, warning that they could destabilise the metro.
“They just fired and removed the secretary-general. This is just clumsy leadership.
“They actually think they can run the municipalities like they run the spaza shops,” Ngema said.
The IFP has put forward its long-serving MP and deputy transport minister, Mkhuleko Hlengwa, as its mayoral candidate. The party said his experience in public administration would help deliver accountable governance. Hlengwa has chaired parliament’s standing committee on public accounts.
The MK Party has campaigned under the slogan Sithatha omaspala, loosely translated as “we are taking all municipalities”. Its mayoral candidate, Mxolisi Phakathi, expressed confidence that the party would win a majority.
“The 2024 election results were a clear indication that the people want the MK Party to govern,” he said.
The party has also strengthened its campaign with the addition of former ANC eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede, a Zuma loyalist with a long-standing base in the region.
Despite the polls suggesting declining support, the ANC insists it will retain control of the metro.
“We’re focusing on ourselves and the people,” provincial convener Mike Mabuyakhulu said.
“We can simply say that the ANC shall retain eThekwini and the ANC will be the biggest political party.”