/ 9 April 2025

Simulating future land-use within the uThukela and uMngeni catchments in KwaZulu-Natal

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Name of research paper
Simulating future land-use within the uThukela and uMngeni catchments in KwaZulu-Natal

Name of research institution
University of KwaZulu-Natal

Name of Department / Faculty
Discipline of Geography, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences

1st Author of the research paper
Kimara Moodley, MSc

 Authors:

Michele L. Toucher, Romano T. Lottering.

Email Address
[email protected]

Submitting Authority
University of KwaZulu-Natal

College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science

School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences

Name of Submitter
Professor Romano Trent Lottering

Capacity of Submitter
Associate Professor and Academic Leader: Teaching and Learning

Email address of submitter

[email protected]

Short description of the research
The research conducted by Kimara Moodley focuses on simulating future land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) within the uThukela and uMngeni catchments in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Utilizing the CA-Markov model in conjunction with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the study successfully predicted future LULC scenarios. Validation results indicated high model reliability, with kappa values exceeding 80%. Projections suggest significant anthropogenic-induced changes, including increased urban and agricultural land uses, leading to further fragmentation of natural landscapes and potential impacts on ecological stability. The findings underscore the necessity for proactive land-use planning and sustainable water resource management in the region.

For the full paper click here: https://mg.co.za/wp-content/uploads/forminator/661847_5ac13dc6138b980575bd24f33eff4ea7/uploads/rEFBfWGsEOBJ-K_Moodley_Paper_1.pdf