Helmo Preuss

London-listed South African life assurance group Old Mutual said on Monday that the adoption of European Embedded Value (EEV) increased its embedded value by 0,5% at the end of December 2004. The EEV principles require best-estimate assumptions, consistency between assumptions and active review.

South African residential property prices should grow at between 18% and 25% this year after an increase of 28% last year, Standard Bank economists Elna Moolman and Matthew Cook told a media briefing on Wednesday at the launch of the quarterly Residential Property Gauge.

All economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge expect no change in interest rates at the end of the two-day meeting of the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which started at 9am on Wednesday. This will be the ninth consecutive meeting at which the majority of economists have forecast no cut in rates.

The 4,2% move in the rand from a best level of 6,3650 per US dollar on May 20 to a worst level of 6,6350 on May 26 has spurred net foreign purchases of South African assets. In the past four trading days, foreigners bought a R1,897-billion worth of South African bonds and a net R355-million worth of South African equities.

The <i>Sunday Times</i> job-advertising space has risen by 25,3% year-on-year in the first four months this year, compared with an 8,7% increase in the first four months of 2004. This points to a strong employment market in 2005, as changes in job-recruitment space tend to lead changes in employment.

The South African housing market is most probably in the process of cooling off after a strong boom phase over the past few years, according to commercial bank Absa. "House-price growth is currently on a downward trend," Absa senior economist Jacques du Toit wrote in the latest <i>Property Trends</i> newsletter.

The African National Congress said at a media briefing to discuss the release of discussion documents on Tuesday that the rand needs to balance the interests of exporters and importers, and would not be drawn on what it considered to be an appropriate competitive level.

Motor claims continue to dominate complaints about service from short-term insurers, according to the 2004 annual report of the ombudsman for short-term insurance, released on Monday. Motor claims accounted for 64% of complaints, followed by complaints relating to household contents and house structures.

The total number of liquidations increased by 32,6% year-on-year (y/y) to 301 after easing by 0,7% y/y in February 2005 to 296 following a 15,5% y/y decline in January 2005 to 328, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday. The record monthly total of 511 was reached in August 2000.

South Africa’s March 2005 producer price index (PPI) is expected to rise to a 1,7% year-on-year (y/y) increase, from only 1,2% y/y in February. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will release the March producer price data at 11.30am on Thursday April 28. According to a survey of economists, the range is from 1,4% y/y to 2,5% y/y.

The total number of foreign travellers who visited South Africa from mainland Africa, overseas and unspecified countries, rose by 2,6% y/y in 2004 to 6&nbsp;815&nbsp;202 compared with a 1,4% rise in 2003 to 6&nbsp;640&nbsp;095, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday.

South African bonds stayed a touch softer in dull midday trade on Monday with the market looking for direction. At noon, the key South African six-year R153 bond was yielding 8,260% – 7 basis points softer than its previous close of 8,190%. The five-year R194 bond was untraded from its previous close of 7,870%.

South African cement sales rose by 12,1% year-on-year (y/y) to 862&nbsp;252 tonnes in February, ending two months of slowing y/y increases. In November 2004, South African cement sales surged by 26,1% y/y to a record 1&nbsp;103&nbsp;317 tonnes, but this slowed to a 7,8% y/y increase to 724&nbsp;051 tonnes in December 2004.

Five years after the Nasdaq index peaked at 5132,52 on 10 March 2000, the Nasdaq is still 60% below this "irrational exuberance" peak as it closed at 2059,72 on 10 March 2005. All the prayers, hopes, media hype and entreaties of the average United States investor and many politicians seem to have had absolutely no effect on the relentless slide of the Nasdaq.

Fujitsu South Africa, part of Japanese-based Fujitsu, the world’s third-largest IT company with annual revenues of R300-billion and more than 156 000 employees, on Wednesday sold a 30% stake to Yard Capital, a black economic empowerment (BEE) investment company headed by Leslie Maasdorp and Irene Charnley.

South Africa’s real retail sales rose to a 12,3% year-on-year (y/y) increase in December after increasing by a revised 11,1% y/y in November following October’s record revised 12,9% y/y in October, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday. This brought real retail sales growth for 2004 to 10,3% compared with 4,9% in 2003 and 2,3% in 2002.

South Africa’s 2004 motor trade sales rose by 17,4% year-on-year to R175,3-billion after a 12,3% rise in 2003, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday. This compared with growth of 9,8% and 7,4% in 2004 and 2003 in nominal gross domestic product.

The proposed relaxation of income tax provisions relating to company restructurings announced in the 2005/6 Budget on Wednesday by Finance Minister Trevor Manuel will help simplify future Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) transactions, Marina Vayanos, Ernst & Young’s senior tax consultant said on Thursday.

South African real wholesale trade sales, excluding diamonds, rose by 21,7% year-on-year (y/y) in November 2004 after rising by a revised 19,8% y/y (original estimate 17,1% y/y) in October 2004, Statistics South Africa reported on Thursday. The original estimate had been at 17,1% y/y.

South African house prices increased by 29,6% year-on-year (y/y) in January 2005 from 32,3% y/y in December 2004 and a recent peak of 35,5% y/y in October 2004, according to South African commercial bank Absa’s monthly house price index released on Thursday.

The total number of liquidations recorded for 2004 was 3 510, a 14,1% decline on the 2003 total of 4 086, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday. The 14,1% decline was due to a decrease of 34,2% (from 857 to 564) in compulsory liquidations and a drop of 8,8% (from 3 229 to 2 946) in voluntary liquidations.