Five years after the Nasdaq index peaked at 5132,52 on 10 March 2000, the Nasdaq is still 60% below this “irrational exuberance” peak as it closed at 2059,72 on 10 March 2005.
All the prayers, hopes, media hype and entreaties of the average United States investor and many politicians seem to have had absolutely no effect on the relentless slide of the Nasdaq.
Thursday’s close was 6% below this year’s peak of 2191,60 on 3 January, the first trading day of the year. The Nasdaq has failed to trade above 2200 in the past four years after slumping to 1108,47 in 2002.
The Nasdaq irrational exuberance was based on the premise that “this time is different” and the internet revolution would lead to a new paradigm of endless ever-expanding profits.
As many gamblers have learnt to their cost, there is no such thing as a one-way bet that continues forever. At some stage, the bet reaches a blow-off stage and like an over-extended elastic, snaps back with a vengeance. This happened with Dutch tulips, Japanese shares and in the case of the Nasdaq, US dot-coms as well.
A Japanese investor seemed to have a one-way bet as Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 share index rose from 10 853,34 at the end of 1984 to peak at 38 915,86 at the end of 1989. That one-way bet has, however, been illusory over the past 12 years as the Nikkei 225 index closed in 2001 at 10 542,62, below its year-end close of 1984.
In the same way, the US investor has found the one-way bet of dot-com shares with no profit history and a high cash burn just as illusory. The one-way bet on the Nasdaq index from a 1994 close of 751,96 to a peak of 5 132,52 in March 2000 has been replaced by a slump that has wiped 60% off the peak value.
As the Nasdaq’s irrational exuberance spurred an equivalent mania in most other stock exchanges in 1999 and 2000, the subsequent five-year slump was the largest destruction of personal wealth ever seen.
I am sure there are few people who believe that investors could be so gullible, but the history of human greed shows that the next mania is just waiting for the next snake-oil seller. – I-Net Bridge