South Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) seasonally annualised and adjusted (saa) basis rose by 4% in the fourth quarter 2004 from a revised eight-year high of 5,7% in the third quarter 2004, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Tuesday.
On a year-on-year (y/y) basis fourth quarter 2004 GDP was up 4,7% from the third quarter’s 3,8%. This is the highest y/y growth rate since the third quarter 2000, when growth was 5,2% y/y.
The annual average for 2004 was 3,7% compared with 2,8% in 2003. This was the highest annual average since 4,2% in 2000.
According to a survey of economists, fourth quarter 2004 GDP growth was expected to have risen to a median forecast of 4,4% on a q/q saa basis.
The range of forecasts was from 3,6 to 5,4%. The growth rate on a y/y basis was expected to be in a range of 4,4% to 4,8% with a median of 4,6%.
The median forecast for the annual average for 2004 is 3,7% with a range of 3,5% to 3,8%.
The main drivers of GDP growth in 2004 were internal trade, financial services, transport and communications, and manufacturing.
Stats SA said at a media briefing on Tuesday that it had made a change to its revision policy and in the future the prior quarters were likely to be revised every quarter rather than waiting for the annual benchmarking exercise in November.
These revisions were likely to be small and should not be more than either 0,1 or 0,2 percentage points. – I-Net Bridge