The country’s coastal municipalities are already under pressure, exposed not only to hazards originating from the ocean such as storm surge and sea level rise-related flooding and erosion, but also to the universal climate hazards experienced in the country
Rising sea levels, an increase in storm frequency and intensity and the related rise in the damage and loss to coastal infrastructure, livelihoods and natural resources are the tangible effects of climate change in South Africa’s coastal zone.
This is according to the inaugural Climate Change Adaptation Response Plan for South Africa’s Coastal Sector (Carp) unveiled by Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Minister Dion George last week, which aims to shield the country’s coastal assets from the effects of climate change.
“Storms like the one that hit the South African south coast on 16/17 September 2023, are causing flood damage to buildings, infrastructure, and private property,” the plan says.
“The observed increase in frequency of these storms is accelerating the economic damage caused and decreasing the resilience … of natural environments, economies and livelihoods and local government entities.”
The country’s coastal municipalities are already under pressure, exposed not only to hazards originating from the ocean such as storm surge and sea level rise-related flooding and erosion, but also to the universal climate hazards experienced in the country, including drought, rainfall-related flooding, extreme temperatures and veld fires.
The coastal sector must embrace a combination of structural, natural and community-based approaches to build resilience and adaptive capacity, protect vulnerable communities, while ensuring long-term sustainability in the face of evolving climate disasters, according to the report.
About 22%, or 12.9 million people, of the country’s total population of 60 million live within 20km of the oceans’ coasts, 60% of them in densely populated metropolitan areas.
Meanwhile, 95% of South Africa’s imports and exports arrive and depart on ships, making about 60% of the economy dependent on coastal natural resources and trade infrastructure such as ports.
“Most of the socio-economic benefits that we receive from the coast are based on the intactness and functionality of natural coastal environments and ecosystems,” the report said, noting that this highlights the importance of coastal environments and resources. But this also indicates the potential risk and vulnerability to which coastal populations, environments and assets in South Africa are exposed.
What is Carp?
Carp is South Africa’s first sector-specific climate adaptation plan dedicated to climate resilience.
“Our coastline or coastal cities are at the front line of climate change, facing severe and multifaceted complexities that threaten livelihoods, communities, economies, infrastructure and ecosystems,” George said.
These issues require integrated inclusive and well-funded strategies that prioritise nature-based solutions, community resilience and sustainable urban planning to safeguard our coastal assets, he said.
With climate change projected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal storms, accelerate sea-level rise, and compound vulnerabilities from population growth, the risks to infrastructure and ecosystems are escalating.
“Carp responds by advancing ecosystem-based management, resilient infrastructure, strong governance and climate-smart livelihoods to secure a sustainable coastal future,” said the minister.
The plan was developed through extensive consultation with more than700 stakeholders in 2023 and 2024. A total of 21 envisaged outcomes and roughly 150 actionable interventions have been developed.
Its key objectives are to strengthen coastal resilience through integrated science-based adaptation measures, align national policies with global frameworks, including the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and enhance government structures to improve coordination across national, provincial and municipal levels.
It also aims to mobilise public and private sector investment to finance adaptation initiatives, protect and restore blue and teal carbon ecosystems and enhance climate resilience and empower local communities.
(Graphic: John McCann/M&G)
Coastal climate hazards
South Africa’s coastal climate, spanning a wide range of climate zones, is influenced by tropical, subtropical and mid-latitude systems. Subtropical high-pressure systems transport moisture, and ex-tropical cyclones can make landfall along the east coast.
Antarctic cut-off low pressure systems can hit especially southern and southwestern coasts in winter — all these systems can result in severe weather events — which already affect lives, property and the country’s economy.
“Floods and storms are by far the most frequently occurring disasters, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, where they originate from extreme rainfall events,” the report noted.
“Unlike the Northern and Western Cape areas in general, the City of Cape Town experienced a high number of weather-related disasters, particularly storms and floods, given the higher exposure of the city and the higher development density in the municipality.”
Extreme rainfall events have a high occurrence in the eastern inland areas of South Africa, but also throughout the coastal zone of the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
“Interestingly, while the Eastern Cape is receiving about the same amount of rainfall as KwaZulu-Natal, flood disasters have been reported here less frequently, likely due to the lower development density and the tendency for settlements to be located in high-lying areas.”
Despite the recorded dwindling number of high-rainfall days in the Northern Cape, urban flooding because of extreme rainfall was reported there last year as well.
This indicates that despite the statistical probability of an extreme event being low, these unlikely events might still occur, “challenging effective disaster response and long-term planning”.
The climate threat of least concern for South Africa’s coast is an increase in heat stress, given the moderating effect of the ocean.
“It is no surprise that, given the illuminated large-scale climate patterns, the intensity of the other climate risks experienced in settlements around the coast vary dramatically. The regional climate context, therefore, needs to be considered for the planning of adaptation response on the ground.”
Droughts will increase mostly on the Northern and Western Cape coast and in northern KwaZulu-Natal. Extreme rainfall-related urban floods will affect the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal as well as the Western Cape’s Overberg and Garden Route. These areas have been affected by flood disasters in the recent past already.
Worldwide, the number of intense tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5 hurricanes) is projected to increase as the world continues to warm. Consequently, tropical cyclones and storms are expected to deliver more rainfall than in the past, as the warmer air can carry more moisture.
The cyclones that affect Southern Africa originate in the southwest Indian Ocean, where Category 5 events have only been detected over the last two decades. In addition to the extreme precipitation associated with cyclones, elevated sea levels and high wind speeds are likely to contribute to related coastal flooding and erosion during such events.
Wildfires will increase moderately for most of the coastal settlements — in the west related to the decrease of rain and increased heat, and in the east related to more droughts and potentially more fuel due to somewhat higher annual rainfall.
In the absence of adaptation, more intense and frequent extreme sea level events, together with trends in coastal development will increase expected annual flood damages by two to three orders of magnitude by 2100.
Similarly, the risks related to sea level rise — including erosion, flooding and salinisation — is expected to significantly increase by the end of this century along all low-lying coasts in the absence of major additional adaptation efforts.
Coastal magnets
Coastal settlements will remain a magnet for a growing population, leading to extreme population increase, in particular in KwaZulu-Natal’s coastal settlements and the coastal metros around the coast, the report said.
“An example of projected extreme population change is the municipality of uMhlathuze, whose population is expected to double between 2011 and 2050, even under a medium growth scenario. This growth will also affect Richards Bay. During the same period, eThekwini’s population is expected to grow by about 1.5 million, and Cape Town’s population by 1.8 million.”
These projections do not include the potential additional pull of population into the coastal zones which the planned development of the Boegoebaai deep-sea port on the Northern Cape coast might add and the planned Eastern Seaboard Development across the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal border.
“The immense population pressure on KwaZulu-Natal’s and the Eastern Cape coast is of concern when seen in relation to the current and projected climate changes, as this region is already prone to disastrous extreme weather-related events, which are likely to get more severe in the future.”
Pro-active and climate-wise development planning for these areas is imperative to keep the growing population and economy out of harm’s way.
“Apart from immediate human land use requirements and the preservation of a productive natural environment, the perspective of a changing climate (for example, shifts in rainfall patterns), increased storminess and rising sea levels pose additional threats to natural coastal ecosystems and the human population and infrastructure reliant on them.”