Severe floods in KZN.
(Photo by RAJESH JANTILAL / AFP)
Devastating floods in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Western Cape; record-breaking heatwaves in the Northern Cape; prolonged drought conditions in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and Free State; more frequent intense storms in Gauteng and severe wildfires in the Eastern Cape.
These extreme weather events are outlined in the draft second nationally determined contribution (NDC) which sets out South Africa’s updated climate targets and strategies for adapting as well as to reduce emissions.
The draft, published this week by Forestry, Fisheries and Environment Minister Dion George, is open for public comment for 30 days.
As a party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement — a legally binding international treaty on climate change — the country is required to submit successive NDCs that represent progress and reflect the highest possible ambition.
The draft sets out South Africa’s updated climate mitigation targets and adaptation goals for the 2026-2030 and 2031-2035 period, “in line with national development priorities and international obligations”, George said. It reflects its commitment to helping limit global warming to below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C, in line with global efforts.
The draft outlines the country’s greenhouse gas targets, priorities for adaptation, implementation needs and support requirements.
‘Highest possible ambition’
In the document, South Africa expresses concern that the risk of overshooting 1.5°C is becoming ever more likely and “we suffer losses and damages from increasing temperatures already”.
“We stand in solidarity with all peoples, particularly other African countries, whose capabilities to adapt are limited,” it said, adding that the global community must redouble efforts to reduce emissions rapidly after peaking, returning to global warming levels below 1.5°C after overshooting. Developed country economies must mobilise finance commensurate with 1.5°C.
Ambition should not only apply to setting goals but to their implementation, it said. “The climate crisis requires urgent action — now, throughout the rest of this critical decade, to 2035 — with a long-term perspective of a just transition to net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.”
South Africa believes that just transitions, for mitigation and adaptation, are “core to shifting our development pathway to increased sustainability, fostering climate resilient and low greenhouse gas emissions development while providing a better life for all”.
Climate impacts in SA
Climate change is one of the “greatest challenges of our generation”, the document said, emphasising that global mitigation efforts fall short of what is needed to keep temperature increase below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. “Rising global emissions mean increasing impacts.”
It warned that between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming, negative impacts for the country are projected to become increasingly widespread and severe. These include reduced food production; slower economic growth; increased inequality and poverty; loss of biodiversity and increased human morbidity and mortality.
Africa is warming at about 1.5 times the global average rate, unleashing more frequent and severe extreme weather events across the continent, and causing an increase in climate-related impacts in South Africa.
Poor communities suffer the worst, while businesses and municipalities struggle to keep operations going during these events and “recover to full operational capacity before experiencing the next extreme event”.
The KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Limpopo and Eastern Cape are particularly vulnerable because of limited access to water and sanitation and high levels of food poverty. This is especially true for households relying on climate-sensitive work, such as rain-fed farming, fishing, and construction, and those with elderly, pregnant, disabled or young family members living in informal housing.
“Increasing impacts mean increasing adaptation needs and associated costs. And where the limits to adaptation are exceeded, increasing loss and damage. Loss and damage is here and now in South Africa,” the draft says.
Future effects from climate extremes in heat and rainfall could reduce the country’s GDP by 3% to 20% per capita, depending on the average global warming level. Infrastructure damage alone could cost up to $522 million annually at 2°C warming.
Climate targets
The country will prepare a comprehensive financing strategy to implement the mitigation and adaptation components of the second NDC, with core indicators and targets for 2030 and 2035.
South Africa retains its 2021 emissions target range of 350-420 Mt CO2-eq (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) by 2030, and introduces a new target of 320-380 Mt CO₂-eq by 2035. These are described as ambitious yet fair, considering the country’s development challenges and historical emissions.
“We also fulfil our obligation to pursue domestic mitigation measures to achieve these targets, affirming that the full implementation of these policies and plans will bend the curve of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to our long-term trajectory.”
Noting that four-fifths of the total global carbon budget consistent with keeping global warming below 1.5°C has already been spent, the draft said that “profligate historical emissions are the reason we have little global carbon budget remaining. It would not be fair to expect poor communities to forego survival emissions”.
It said that the greater responsibility and capability of developed countries means they must undertake more ambitious mitigation and provide support, such as finance, technology and capacity-building, to developing countries, including South Africa.
South Africa’s adaptation efforts focus on building resilience to climate impacts, while addressing vulnerabilities. National goals include improving water and sanitation systems for droughts and floods and improving disaster risk management, healthcare and the provision of sanitation, particularly in vulnerable informal settlements.
Critical transport infrastructure will be upgraded to withstand intense rainfall, heat stress, wind speeds and storm surges, while early-warning and information systems will be improved.
The protection of the country’s natural heritage, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning will be strengthened to deal with heat and water stress while capacity will be built across all government spheres to implement adaptation strategies.
Progress will be tracked using indicators such as water-loss reduction, disaster-response metrics and biodiversity conservation.
Fair share
The document emphasises that South Africa’s ability to achieve its adaptation goals depends heavily on international climate finance. It calls for scaled-up funding from developed countries and simplified access to these funds.
The country’s first Biennial Transparency Report showed that less than 1% of international financial support received for the country was allocated exclusively to adaptation, which is significantly inadequate. The country received a total of $827.69 million in international financial support during the period 2021-2022, averaging R413 million per year.
About 80% was provided in the form of loans and 6% as grants provided for mitigation. To implement the country’s NDC, an estimated $344 billion will be required by 2030 to support both the full implementation of the just energy transition and to bridge the gap between the country’s adaptation needs and costs.
The draft notes how geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with gaps in international climate finance, pose challenges to implementation. Improved systems for estimating greenhouse gas emissions, especially in the land sector, are needed.
Loss and damage
Shifting climate conditions are already having damaging and costly impacts across multiple sectors, the document said. South Africa’s water and sanitation systems are being disrupted by droughts and floods, with cascading impacts on health, tourism and economic outputs, while climate change is reducing crop and livestock yields, negatively affecting the productivity of smallholder, commercial and mixed farms.
“Exposure to non-optimal temperatures and extreme weather has increased the range and transmission of infectious diseases, increased heat-related mortality, increased mental health, suicide and homicide risk and drought-associated malnutrition.”
Changes in wind patterns, air and water temperatures and acidification in and and around the country are “destroying marine biodiversity”, reducing the productivity of freshwater bodies and changing animal and vegetation distributions.
Temperatures are approaching the physiological limits of species with heat extremes driving mass mortality events in birds and bats and changes in vegetation affecting fire regimes. Infrastructure and human mobility are increasingly affected by floods and heatwaves.
As the country engages the public on this updated NDC, the WWF is urging South Africans to participate in the public consultation process and demand stronger climate action.
“This is a critical time,” said its climate specialist James Reeler. “We must make it clear that South Africa is ready to face this challenge — and that we need global support to do it.”
*Comments can be emailed to Mkhuthazi Steleki at [email protected] or Mutshidzi Ndiitwani at [email protected] by no later than Friday 29 August 2025.