Extraction: Coal mining communities must take part in planning processes and see tangible assets such as skills centres when mines are closed, a study by UCT says. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
The global shift away from coal has major implications for South Africa’s coal mine workers.
The just transition to cleaner energy requires a deep understanding of the local context and the social realities of mine closures, according to a new study by University of Cape Town (UCT) researcher Megan Cole, published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science.
“Despite intense national debate about a ‘just transition’, we felt South Africa lacked a comprehensive, localised profile of coal mine workers — who they are, where they live, how they’re employed and who is most exposed to closure risk,” said Cole, of UCT’s Future Water Institute.
To address this, the authors built a national dataset of 47 100 workers at 33 mines in five provinces to “fill that gap and guide targeted support”.
The analysis drew on all 33 publicly available social and labour plans (SLPs), spatial tax income data and technical mine data. This novel dataset assessed education, employment status, income levels and the risk of job loss because of mine closure.
The analysis showed that the workforce is predominantly black African (81%) and 82% are men. Importantly, 43% are contract workers.
Contractors are consistently more vulnerable, Cole said. “They have lower formal qualifications, weaker job protections and are more likely to come from another province, which compounds displacement risk when mines close. They have more precarious work, receive fewer benefits and face harder re-employment pathways.”
More than half of workers are unskilled or semi-skilled, with only 30% of permanent staff and 10% of contractors having post-school training, yet most emerging opportunities — in renewables, grid upgrades, advanced manufacturing and services — require certified skills.
“Without funded, portable skills programmes and placement support, re-employment rates will lag and incomes will fall.”
Coal mine jobs pay 55% more than local averages, so job losses ripple across entire local economies.
“Every retrenchment removes disproportionately large spending power from local economies — hitting small businesses, municipal revenues, and household welfare. International and South African evidence shows mine closures often trigger unemployment, business closures, service deterioration and social strain.”
Phase-down hotspots
The analysis revealed that four municipalities in Mpumalanga —Victor Khanye, Emalahleni, Steve Tshwete and Msukaligwa — face highly concentrated transition risks.
“They host clusters of coal mines facing closure in the next few years — typically thermal coal operations with shorter remaining life-of-mine, smaller coal resources, higher reliance on junior operators and a lower share of permanent workers.
“Our mine-level risk index combines these factors and shows risk is geographically concentrated —exactly where transition planning must be most focused.”
South Africa is the world’s seventh biggest coal producer and the country most dependent on coal for electricity. Coal mining and power generation employ about 100 000 workers, while over 2.5 million people live in diverse coal mining communities.
“Coal mining is a cornerstone of the economy and the transition towards clean energy needs to be informed by a comprehensive understanding of both the coal workers and their communities,” Cole said.
She emphasised that the national transition narrative often overlooks local-level details, such as the expected years until closure of different mines and the nature of the affected communities, which are predominantly in small towns.
“Each mine is different, mining thermal coal and/or metallurgical coal, employing predominantly permanent workers or contractors and with varying coal reserves that may or may not extend the life of mine. The energy transition is a transition — it will take place over the next few decades in different places and have varying social and economic impact.”
Although 15 mines are expected to close by 2030 and a further 23 by 2040, there is time to plan for closure and economic diversification.
She noted that the main focus of SLPs is on supporting mine workers and local communities during the operating years of a mine, but a critical component is planning for mine closure and retrenchment.
“At the 33 mines we analysed, about 20% of the R4.7 billion in SLPs is budgeted for social aspects of closure. This focuses on reskilling workers and forming ‘Future Forums’ with workers and trade unions.
“But transparency and delivery vary across mines. Many SLPs are hard to access, government oversight is weak and communities struggle to verify implementation against commitments and timelines.”
The maps and data from the study can inform affected communities on when mines are expected to close and the funding available in SLPs.
“They should be engaging in the local municipal [integrated development plan] processes to push for skills development, enterprise finance and public-service investments where closure risk is high,” Cole said.
“The research also highlights how many coal mines do not publicly share their SLPs, which is a problem for the affected local communities. They can use the findings to advocate for greater transparency and oversight.”
Slow transition
Cole hopes the analysis will promote deeper discussions on the just energy transition among a diverse group of stakeholders, empower communities to prepare for closure and support evidence-based decision-making.
It comes at an important time, as the country moves from strategy development to implementation.
“This analysis helps identify where and for whom the risks of transition are highest, offering useful insights for policymakers aiming to target support for a just transition.”
Three issues stand out — the first is timing. “Reducing coal mine production and mine closure will be a slow transition over many years. This means we have time to prepare our workers and communities and local economies. But we must start now.”
The second is spatial and technical mismatches. “Most renewable projects to date are in Northern Cape and Western Cape, far from coal towns in Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, and they require different skill sets.”
The third is income levels. “Coal workers earn good incomes and usually benefit from medical aid, pensions and bonuses. Leaving mining for another sector such as tourism or agriculture is likely to leave them with lower incomes and struggling to support their families.
To ensure a just transition for workers and towns dependent on coal, Cole said: “We need to see reskilling programmes for workers, capacity building in local municipalities, economic diversification initiatives and social protections to support affected communities, especially those in the low-income category.
“I don’t think we’ve done enough research into the realities of economic diversification in small towns — history shows that most mining towns face economic decline and workers migrate to larger urban centres.
“We need to have multi-stakeholder conversations about how realistic these initiatives are and how the government and the private sector can work together to support these communities.”
Successfully managing South Africa’s coal-to-clean energy transition fairly means that workers transition into jobs with comparable earnings and with social support where relocations are necessary.