The aardvark — long considered relatively secure — has been moved from least concern to near threatened, reflecting growing pressures on its habitat. (Anamilia)
Nearly 20% of assessed mammal species in South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho are threatened with extinction and a further 12% are near-threatened.
This is according to the 2025 Regional Mammal Red List of Threatened Species, a major new assessment coordinated by the Endangered Wildlife Trust and the South African National Biodiversity Institute, along with 150 species experts.
The revised Red List shows that 11 mammal species have worsened in conservation status (uplisted) since the previous assessment in 2016, while only three species have improved (downlisted), pointing to mounting pressures on the region’s wildlife despite decades of conservation effort.
Of the 336 mammals assessed, 67 species are endemic to the region, meaning they occur nowhere else on Earth. The results show that 42% of the endemic mammals are threatened with extinction, placing full responsibility for their protection and survival on the countries where they occur.
This includes species such as Lesueur’s hairy bat and Laminate vlei rat, both of which were uplisted to higher threat categories and are poorly protected or not protected at all within conservation areas.
“We need to protect our endemics,” Dr Tamanna Patel, the coordinator of the Mammal Red List, emphasised.
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species was a comprehensive inventory of the global extinction risk of animals, fungi and plants at either a global, regional or national scale, she explained.
It acted as a crucial indicator of global biodiversity health, classifying the survival risk facing species into nine categories (from least concern to extinct) and based on objective criteria, providing data on threats, habitats and conservation needs to guide policy and action.
“Along with assessing the risk of species becoming globally extinct, it is important to assess species at regional and national levels where conservation policy is often implemented,” Patel said.
Red Lists guide conservation action but if assessments are outdated, the limited conservation resources might not focus on species that require the most urgent intervention.
Habitat loss, climate change and poaching drive declines
The assessment identifies habitat loss and degradation as the dominant drivers of mammal declines, largely because of agricultural expansion, urban development and infrastructure growth.
The pressures are compounded by climate change and extreme weather events, as well as over-exploitation and poaching. While South Africa’s protected-area network offers some buffers, it is far from comprehensive.
The analysis shows that about 76% of mammal species are well or moderately protected but nearly a quarter (24%) remain poorly protected or entirely outside protected areas, leaving them vulnerable to further decline.
Among the species uplisted in the 2025 revision are some of the region’s most familiar mammals. The aardvark — long considered relatively secure — has been moved from least concern to near threatened, reflecting growing pressures on its habitat.
The thick-tailed bushbaby is also among the species uplisted from least concern to near threatened based on increasing threats from agriculture, residential and industrial development and emerging threats such as linear infrastructure development and climate change.
More dramatic declines are seen in species such as the Namaqua dune mole-rat, which has been uplisted from least concern to endangered, and the Lesueur’s hairy bat, listed as vulnerable.
The Red List also documents genuine conservation successes. The Roan antelope, Southern elephant seal and Hartmann’s mountain zebra were all downlisted after sustained population recoveries, demonstrating that well-resourced, long-term conservation interventions can work.
Climate modelling reveals future risks
For the first time, the regional mammal assessment incorporated climate modelling to project how future climate scenarios could affect species distributions.
Fourteen species identified as climate-vulnerable were modelled under best- and worst-case emissions pathways.
The results are particularly stark for the critically endangered riverine rabbit, one of South Africa’s rarest mammals.
Patel pointed to research that showed that best-case scenario models for 2011 to 2040 predicted a 7% to 56% reduction in suitable habitat, rising to 12% to 60% loss under worst-case projections.
The EWT said that while evidence for climate change impacts was reviewed for all assessments, there was little research or data to show the impact of climate change on most mammal species.
“Targeted research on climate vulnerability is needed across all mammal orders to inform proactive conservation strategies and adaptive management interventions.”
Another innovation in the latest revision is the first national-scale assessment of genetic health across an entire taxonomic group in South Africa.
Using indicators aligned with the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which aims to halt and reverse nature loss, scientists assessed whether mammal populations are large and connected enough to remain genetically viable.
However, limited data constrained the analysis. Seven percent of assessed species were classified as data deficient with whales and dolphins making up the majority.
Patel noted that the lack of baseline population monitoring, especially for small mammals, remained one of the most significant gaps in the country’s conservation knowledge. All data deficient species required urgent baseline surveys and monitoring programmes, she added.