South Africa’s new draft national leopard conservation strategy sets out an ambitious vision for leopards to thrive across “living landscapes” while supporting cultural traditions and local livelihoods.
But the draft, published for public comment by the department of forestry, fisheries and the environment, acknowledges a fundamental problem at the heart of managing the iconic species: there is no rigorous estimate of how many leopards remain in the country.
Published estimates range from 2 185 to 23 400 animals. The draft estimates that leopards have disappeared from 67% of their historical range, with most suitable habitat now lying outside formally protected areas.
The large carnivores face habitat loss and fragmentation, human-wildlife conflict, retaliatory and illegal killing, illegal trade, declining prey and uneven conservation capacity.
The document also raises questions about how South Africa determines what constitutes sustainable use of a species whose population size and trends remain uncertain.
According to the strategy, limited standardised, long-term population monitoring “hinders evidence-based decision-making and undermines the ability to set sustainable hunting quotas or assess conservation outcomes”.
South Africa has a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (Cites) export quota for 11 leopard trophies in 2026 and 10 in 2027.
The department told the Mail & Guardian that the quotas, allocated under the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act, had been informed by the best available scientific information and recommendations from the Scientific Authority of South Africa.
“The quotas serve to support lawful and responsible conservation management by the private sector,” it said. “The Cites export quotas regulate the maximum number of hunting trophies that may be exported from South Africa and do not automatically authorise hunting of these species.
“Any hunting activity remains subject to all applicable national and provincial permit requirements and compliance measures.”
Uncertain numbers
A July study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology estimated South Africa’s adult male leopard population at about 1 084, with a 95% confidence interval of 639 to 1 773.
The study forms part of an effort to establish quantitative conservation targets for leopards across sub-Saharan Africa.
It estimated the contemporary sub-Saharan African leopard population at about 80 276 animals, with a 95% confidence interval of 44 800 to 142 604. The researchers, from Nottingham Trent University in the UK and Nelson Mandela University found that leopards had disappeared from about 41% of their historical range.
The researchers combined existing leopard density estimates with habitat-suitability modelling.
They found leopards were less abundant in areas with more livestock, people and agricultural or forest land and more abundant where there was greater diversity of wild prey such as buffalo, antelope and pigs.
Of particular relevance to trophy hunting, the researchers estimated that only 2 800 to 8 700 adult male leopards live outside protected areas in countries where trophy hunting is permitted.
The study does not conclude that South Africa’s current quota of 10 or 11 animals is unsustainable. However, the estimate highlights uncertainty around the adult male population, the demographic group most relevant to trophy hunting, which generally targets older males.
The researchers use 10% of the adult male population as a recommended maximum offtake threshold and found that current Cites hunting quotas exceed that threshold in more than half of the trophy-hunting countries assessed.
The study also estimated that the leopard population could potentially reach 55 200 to 175 600 animals under current ecological conditions across its historical range, providing a potential recovery target. It recommends protecting habitat, restoring prey and improving leopard populations inside and outside protected areas.
The national leopard monitoring project cited in the draft strategy estimated an annual population increase of 2.6%. This contrasts with an earlier assessment of about a 3% annual decline to 2022 and an estimated decline of about 8% in an even earlier assessment.
The national picture also masks provincial differences. KwaZulu-Natal is estimated to be experiencing a decline of about 3% a year, while data for the Eastern Cape remain scarce.
The strategy proposes expanding monitoring, securing resources for it and exploring a national database to bring population information together.
It also proposes revising South Africa’s leopard Non-Detriment Finding — the scientific assessment required to establish that international trade will not threaten the survival of a species — and incorporating legal offtake of damage-causing animals into national leopard monitoring.
Competing interests
The draft strategy follows 31 stakeholder workshops held across all nine provinces between August and December 2024, involving 1 980 participants, including traditional leaders, academics, conservation and welfare organisations, farmers, reserve managers, hunters, tourism operators and government authorities.
The consultations exposed competing views on how leopards should be managed. Traditional and cultural stakeholders highlighted the significance of leopard skins and other body parts for spiritual, cultural and medicinal purposes.
Farmers raised livestock losses and safety concerns, while conservation and tourism interests stressed the species’ ecological value and role in non-consumptive tourism.
The strategy does not propose ending consumptive use. Instead, it says competing interests cannot all be accommodated simultaneously and that “strategic trade-offs are required”.
It warns that an approach focused only on preservation could alienate stakeholders, but also states: “A policy of allowing unfettered consumptive use of leopards may result in the rapid extirpation of leopards from most of their range in South Africa.”
Its proposed approach is “equitable, transparent, and evidence-based governance”.
The strategy also seeks to increase the economic benefits associated with leopards, identifying ecotourism, hunting revenue, game farming and conservation jobs as potential benefits. It proposes regulated access to leopard derivatives for cultural and spiritual purposes, including mechanisms for sharing products such as skins from natural mortalities.
But it acknowledges that communities living alongside leopards currently bear costs including livestock losses, while economic opportunities and benefit-sharing remain inconsistent.
Bool Smuts, general manager of the Landmark Foundation, an NGO dedicated to leopard conservation and broader environmental protection said the strategy did not go far enough in addressing weaknesses in monitoring, enforcement and transparency.
“It is largely a consolidation and operationalisation of existing policy rather than a meaningful scientific or governance shift,” Smuts said.
He said a “defensible quota” would require recent, spatially explicit population estimates covering protected and non-protected land, age and sex-structured demographic modelling, and data on legal trophy hunting, illegal killing, retaliatory mortality and other sources of mortality.
“Until these gaps are closed and the science is published for scrutiny, continued trophy hunting cannot be justified as evidence-based,” he said.
He said the recent Journal of Applied Ecology research should prompt a transparent review of South Africa’s leopard offtake regime, rather than assuming that the reduced 10- or 11-animal quota is automatically sustainable.
He argues, too, that the draft strategy needs to demonstrate more clearly how economic benefits from wildlife use would reach communities living with leopards, rather than relying on general commitments to benefit-sharing.
The draft strategy identifies trophy hunting as only one source of mortality. Retaliatory killings, poaching, snaring, illegal trade, animals removed as damage-causing animals, habitat loss and fragmentation and declining prey all contribute to pressure on the species.
It describes existing conservation measures as “largely fragmented, inconsistent, and limited in scale or impact”.
Smuts welcomed the strategy’s recognition of monitoring and coordination problems but questioned whether government agencies had the capacity to implement its proposals.
“The strategy correctly diagnoses coordination and resource gaps and proposes a Leopard implementation coordination committee, phased activities and enabling conditions (finance, participation, legislation) but fails to address the problems in government agencies themselves,” he said.
“Without those, it risks becoming another well-written document that is not delivered on the ground.”
Derek van der Merwe, manager of the Carnivore Conservation Unit at the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT) said quota decisions should be based on current, spatially explicit scientific evidence.
“I therefore believe greater transparency is needed around the data, population assessments and methodology used to determine the current quotas and translate national information into hunting-zone allocations,” he said.
The EWT supports precautionary measures already attached to the quota system, including the allocation of one leopard per designated hunting zone and the requirement that hunted males be seven years or older.
Van der Merwe said the strategy appropriately identified the major threats to leopards and the need for stronger long-term monitoring, but that implementation and resourcing would be critical.
“However, all forms of use must ultimately be underpinned by demonstrable conservation outcomes, effective monitoring and adaptive management,” he said.
Van der Merwe said that while the strategy identifies the major threats facing leopards and appropriately recognises the need for stronger, long-term and standardised population monitoring “implementation and resourcing of this monitoring will be critical, particularly given the acknowledged uncertainty around leopard population size and trends in parts of the country”.
What happens next
The action plan contains 19 key activities over 10 years, including expanded population monitoring, improved responses to human-leopard conflict, community economic opportunities and stronger provincial enforcement and reporting.
The leopard implementation coordination committee is proposed within three months of publication, with annual implementation planning and reporting to the environment minister.
The action plan is due for review after five years, while its longer-term vision and goals are to be reviewed after 10 years.
For now, however, the strategy itself identifies the central gap: South Africa needs better information on how many leopards remain, where they occur and how their populations are changing.
The draft notes that conservation decisions should be based on reliable scientific data, traditional knowledge and monitoring, with adaptive management used as new information becomes available.
The public has been invited to send their comments on the draft strategy and action plan to ConservationManagement@dffe.gov.za