South African farmers are entering a potentially strong El Niño season with fuller dams, improved soil moisture and early summer rains, offering some reassurance ahead of a production season that could still bring difficult conditions.
Major dam levels stood at about 90% on 5 October, compared with about 60% during the corresponding period ahead of the 2015/16 drought, according to Malapane Thamaga, a senior economist: agricultural regulatory measures at the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC).
“In the 2015 period, dam levels were around 60% and that drought was also much longer,” he told the Mail & Guardian on Thursday.
“Furthermore, soil moisture was not as favourable as it is now, following a longer rainy summer season that lasted through to May 2026 (compared with typical rains that end in March) and the early rains of the 2026/27 production year experienced in September and the early days of October 2026.”
Some snow in the country’s highlands, he said, had added to the soil moisture content.
Thamaga said planting and investment decisions were influenced by prevailing sentiment and expectations, with improved conditions potentially encouraging some farmers to take calculated risks.
“Clear communication on prevailing conditions and the factors leading up to the drought provides farmers with a degree of reassurance and supports more informed decision-making.”
Thamaga noted that almost 100% of South Africa’s commercial fruit orchards and vegetable-producing areas were irrigated, “so the higher water levels help”.
“The better soil moisture currently also helps the condition of pastures (grass cover) and some reported early plantings of field crops. Still, a lot depends on how the season unfolds, especially for field crops, as only 20% of them are irrigated.”
He said that based on the information currently available, “we remain cautiously optimistic that farmers will have improved capacity to cope with adverse conditions”.
However, the risks extend beyond field crops. Persistent adverse weather can affect grazing conditions, leaving livestock producers vulnerable to deteriorating pastures. The
NAMC said exposure varied depending on pasture-management practices in different areas.
These risks were discussed at a high-level El Niño preparedness roundtable convened in Pretoria this week by Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land Wandile Sihlobo, with support from the NAMC and Bayer.
The roundtable heard that forecasts pointed to a strong El Niño during the 2026/27 summer production season, with the possibility of impacts emerging earlier than usual.
Drier and warmer conditions were expected across key summer rainfall areas, particularly during the latter part of the season. The Free State, North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo were identified as important grain-producing regions facing potential risks.
Thamaga described this as a “nationwide challenge (with pockets of extreme vulnerability in certain areas, as depicted by meteorological models)”.
Field crops, including grains, oilseeds and sugar, were always the most exposed, as only 20% were under irrigation, he said.
Persistent bad weather conditions often led to poor pasture conditions. “This means the livestock sector is also vulnerable to the anticipated El Niño, at varying levels depending on pasture management practices across different areas. Still, because of the dam levels and better soil moisture, we anticipate that the season may not be as harsh as in 2015/16.”
Despite the more favourable starting conditions, Thamaga said that limited access to finance, insurance and other risk-management instruments remained the primary constraint on the ability of smallholder and emerging farmers to absorb and recover from shocks.
“Insurance has always been a challenge for smallholder and emerging farmers, as current products are expensive and not easily accessible,” he said. “It should be noted that even commercial farmers at times find insurance costly.
“There are, however, some encouraging developments in innovative insurance products, such as weather-based index insurance.”
Thamaga said continuously improving water infrastructure to reduce losses, providing regular drought updates as an early-warning mechanism would help build resilience to the El Niño while ensuring adequate animal-feed supplies was key.
“Similarly, ensuring that we can efficiently import various products when needed is important. Again, South Africa is not in crisis now, but these are issues we keep in mind and considered in the meeting.”