/ 15 October 2024

Kamala Harris gains momentum, but can she sustain it?

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The US Democratic presidential nominee, vice president Kamala Harris, speaks during a campaign rally at the Rawhide Event Centre on October 10, 2024 in Chandler, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

As 5 November inches closer, Kamala Harris finds herself in a precarious yet promising position.

Despite tackling a complex political landscape, she appears to be gaining momentum, bolstered by several key developments. But her campaign’s success will largely depend on whether she can effectively capitalise on this newfound traction in the final stretch. 

With Donald Trump backing out of a second debate and recent polls showing Harris leading in critical states, the vice-president’s team senses a surge. Yet, as anyone familiar with US elections knows, poll numbers and momentum are fleeting.

What really matters is how the final weeks unfold — and whether Harris can close the gap between a solid campaign and a victorious one. 

At the heart of this drama is Trump’s decision to avoid a second debate with Harris. His refusal has sparked widespread speculation about the reasoning behind it. Many see it as a calculated move, suggesting that Trump may have more to lose than gain from another face-off with Harris.

In their previous debate, Harris was seen as having the upper hand, pressing Trump on several issues and scoring valuable political points. Trump, a master of media manipulation, may be avoiding further confrontation to prevent another round of unfavourable headlines.

The decision not to engage directly with Harris in the debate arena reflects a growing recognition of her as a formidable challenger.

While Trump is known for his bombastic rhetoric and ability to dominate media cycles, Harris is finding her own voice. Her recent rise in the polls in battleground states indicates that she is making inroads where it counts.

Yet, despite the positive polling data, Harris faces a significant challenge: persuading Americans why she, rather than Trump, belongs in the Oval Office. Her critics argue that she remains an enigma to many voters. Even with her years as vice-president, she hasn’t yet firmly defined her own political identity on the national stage. 

To close this gap, Harris is embarking on a media blitz, a sharp contrast from her more reserved media strategy in the early stages of her campaign. This media offensive includes appearances on popular shows such as Call Her Daddy and The Howard Stern Show, where Harris aims to showcase her personality and connect with voters on a more personal level. 

Her team understands that the election is not just a referendum on policies but also on character. Voters need to feel like they know the candidate, and Harris’s new approach signals an attempt to present herself in a more relatable light.

By embracing a diverse range of platforms, she is working to build a narrative that resonates with undecided voters — particularly younger Americans and suburban women, who may play a pivotal role in this election.

Harris’s appearance on 60 Minutes further underscored this shift in her campaign strategy. Stepping into one of the most respected platforms in American journalism, Harris used the opportunity to communicate her vision for the country. The stakes were high. With election day just weeks away, this was not just another interview — it was a chance to reframe her candidacy. 

Harris’s performance was lauded by Democrats for its clarity and conviction. But, as expected, Trump was quick to dismiss it, claiming she was ill-prepared and ineffective, a tactic he often employs to diminish his rivals.

Trump’s approach, meanwhile, remains largely consistent with his previous campaigns.

He has continued to double down on his record on the economy, immigration and national security, painting Harris as merely an extension of President Joe Biden’s administration.

By framing her as part of what he calls a failed presidency, Trump is hoping to galvanise his core supporters while drawing in undecided voters who are dissatisfied with the current administration. 

His base remains strong, and his ability to rally voters in key states remains a critical advantage as the campaign enters its final phase. 

For Harris, the key question is whether she can break through the deeply polarised political landscape. Polls may show her leading in several battleground states, but as every seasoned political strategist knows, polls are merely snapshots in time.

They reflect a momentary sentiment, one that can change rapidly in the face of unforeseen events or strategic shifts. Campaign tactics, external factors like economic news, or even unexpected global events can dramatically alter the course of the race. As such, while Harris’s campaign has reason to feel optimistic, it is far too early to claim victory.

A looming issue for Harris is voter turnout. In any US election, but especially in one as contentious as this, getting voters to the polls is crucial.

Trump’s loyal base is known for its enthusiasm, and Harris must find a way to match that energy. This is where her media appearances and personal outreach could make a significant difference. Connecting with voters, energising them, and ensuring they turn out on election day will be essential if she hopes to maintain her current advantage. 

In the final weeks of the campaign, both candidates will be scrambling to secure their bases while trying to win over undecided voters. Harris’s media blitz could prove to be a game-changer, allowing her to present a more human side and clarify her vision for the country.

But Trump, who thrives in the chaos of the campaign trail, is unlikely to go down without a fight. His ability to dominate headlines and dictate the national conversation is a tool that cannot be underestimated.

Ultimately, the outcome of this election will hinge on which candidate can more effectively navigate these last few weeks.

For Kamala Harris, the challenge is clear: build on her recent gains, connect with voters and avoid the pitfalls that come with being a high-profile candidate in an era of hyper-partisanship. For Trump, the goal is to reassert himself as the dominant force in American politics, playing to his strengths and attacking his opponent’s perceived weaknesses.

The next few weeks will not only determine who sits in the Oval Office but will also shape the future direction of the US in ways that will be felt for years to come. 

Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. He qualified as a physician from Dow Medical University in 1991 and has a master’s degree in international relations from Karachi University.