The decline of the ANC does not automatically mean the growth of the DA, despite the spotlight being on these two parties in the GNU.
(Delwyn Verasamy, M&G)
The January 8 statement of 1972, delivered by former ANC president Oliver Tambo, was a groundbreaking initiative.
It set a strategic direction, rallied ANC members and garnered international support for the liberation movement, while reinforcing the organisation’s mandate domestically and globally.
This inaugural address underscored the significance of the January 8 statement in shaping ANC politics and its fight against apartheid.
This year’s January 8 statement comes at a critical juncture. Deviations from its core principle to please the current political dynamics that come with the government of national unity (GNU) could result in the party losing voters.
On the other hand, the retention of its principles has the potential of reviving the party.
When the ANC was elected as the governing party of South Africa in 1994, the January 8 statement evolved into a tool for communicating the government’s annual intentions to its citizens.
For instance, in the 2024 statement, President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted the National Health Insurance (NHI) initiative. He stated, “As part of achieving universal and equitable access to health care, we spent significant time and effort over the past three decades to establish a system of universal health insurance. This work culminated in the passing of the National Health Insurance Bill by parliament in 2023 as the surest way to equitably distribute access to health care in our country.”
But this declaration, and the ANC’s broader governmental intentions, failed to resonate with the electorate in the 29 May general elections. For the first time in 30 years, the citizens of the Republic of South Africa were not persuaded by the annual vision of the ANC.
Therefore the 2025 January 8 statement will serve as a litmus test for the ANC’s relevance in the unity government, where it holds a majority vote share of just 40% plus. Historically this statement articulated the ANC’s governance strategy.
But six months into a cooperative governance framework tested through contentious policies such as the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Act and the NHI, the upcoming January 8 statement prompts the question: will the ANC reaffirm its foundational principles, or will it adopt a centrist governance posture to appease its GNU partners, figures such as the Democratic Alliance’s (DA’s) Gogo Hellen Zille and organisations like AfriForum and Solidarity?
South Africans ought to critically scrutinise the dynamics in the GNU where governance meets power. Zille, the DA’s federal chairperson, referred to the GNU as a coalition government between DA and ANC, ignoring the other eight parties.
This framing calls for vigilance from South Africans, given the ideologically irreconcilable difference between the parties. They must remain wary of political manoeuvring that could obscure the GNU’s shortcomings under the guise of it being a nascent democratic project.
The complexities stemming from the 29 May 2024 elections that resulted in the GNU underscore that the ANC can no longer unilaterally determine government policies.
Over the past six months, the government has faced challenges marked by ideological and strategic disagreements over the Bela Act, the NHI and international engagements. These disputes create a fraught environment for the ANC to deliver its traditional January 8 statement.
If the ANC wishes to retain 40% plus of its voter base the first step is to not deviate from the core principles of the party. Should the president deviate too far from the traditional January 8 statement, the likes of Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi will emerge as saviours of the ANC of Oliva Tambo.
But the decline of the ANC does not automatically mean the growth of the DA despite the spotlight being on these two parties in the GNU.
Dimakatso Manthosi is an advocate for social, political and legal justice. He has previously served as spokesperson for MOVE South Africa and as a researcher, policy analyst and parliamentary researcher for RISE Mzansi.