Africa’s infrastructure financing gap needs to be bridged. Photo: Adrian Greeman/Construction Photography/Avalon/Getty Images
On a continent where 600 million people still don’t have electricity and 278 million face hunger, the selection of the African Development Bank’s (AfDB’s) next president isn’t just a bureaucratic transition, it could shape the lives of more than a billion people. Among the candidates vying for this position is Samuel Munzele Maimbo.
The Southern African Development Community and Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa have endorsed Maimbo. These economic blocs, representing 28 nations and over 720 million people combined, recognise what I’ve observed over a decade studying development institutions in Africa: the old model of development finance is failing to meet the continent’s enormous needs.
The African Development Bank embodies a paradox of untapped potential: its $196 billion in capital subscriptions and $55 billion balance sheet mask a more sobering reality — just $10 billion in paid-in capital supporting a modest $30 billion loan portfolio. This financial timidity has turned Africa’s premier development institution into a cautious observer of the very challenges it was created to solve, as the continent’s annual infrastructure financing gap of US$100 billion continues to widen.
While the bank has mastered the pageantry of development discourse — complete with well-crafted speeches and branded initiatives — it has yet to master the more crucial art of mobilising capital markets at the scale Africa’s energy and food security problems demand. The continent requires more than incremental adjustments to traditional development finance; it needs a fundamental reimagining of how its premier institution uses capital and catalyses investment.
The most consequential politics in development rarely unfolds on public stages. Rather, it emerges in the patient craft of building coalitions, where success is measured not in sound bites but in the quiet victories of bringing diverse interests into alignment. At the World Bank, when Covid-19 had frozen most global financial initiatives, Maimbo arranged a $100 billion replenishment that shifted the paralysis regarding the pandemic.
He grasped early that political achievements in global institutions come not from commanding authority, but from weaving together disparate interests into a shared vision of progress.
Maimbo’s three areas of expertise — climate finance, digital transformation and youth empowerment — mirror Africa’s most pressing issues. Africa faces a stark injustice because it bears the brunt of a climate crisis it did little to create. His record of structuring innovative green finance deals suggests he could transform the AfDB from an institution that merely responds to the climate crisis into one that shapes Africa’s climate-resilient future through financial and business model innovation.
The digital revolution tells a similar story of potential. When African startups raised $4.8 billion in 2022, they weren’t just securing investment — they were offering a glimpse of what’s possible when innovation meets opportunity.
The demographic clock adds urgency to this moment of reckoning as Africa’s population marches toward doubling by 2050. The AfDB needs someone who can speak the complex language of structured finance while never losing sight of its mission to create opportunity for the millions of young Africans who enter the workforce each year.
At a time when Africa faces challenges — from deglobalisation and climate change to international financial and technological disruption — the continent needs more than a traditional development banker. It needs a leader who can reimagine development finance for the 21st century.
Dr Mundia Kabinga is a senior lecturer in infrastructure finance and strategy at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business. He is also a visiting faculty and research fellow at Fernfachhochschule Schweiz in Brig, Switzerland.