The gas is supplied from Mozambique’s Pande-Temane fields through the Rompco pipeline. Photo: Graham Kietzmann/Sasol
In just less than two years, South Africa will run out of gas with little to no preparation for this pending critical energy cessation.
The gas supply imported from Mozambique’s Pande-Temane fields through the Rompco pipeline is the country’s only substantial natural gas, which is coming to an end by mid-2027. Without any large-scale production to speak of domestically and with no liquefied natural gas (LNG) import infrastructure that is operational, there are limited options to work with, and we are running out of time.
The irony of this pending cessation is that it is neither lack of demand nor opportunity that creates bottlenecks, but rather the legal red tape and policy inertia in South Africa’s energy sector. Gas is vital to the stability of our electricity grid, and provides an opportunity to create jobs and power industries. The regulatory red tapes and bureaucracy deters the very investors with resource capacity to offer these solutions.
The electricity crisis in South Africa is well documented: load-shedding, unstable electricity grid, inadequate investment in new generation capacity and exorbitant amount of money spent on diesel to meet the daily electricity demand.
Even with the demand that is projected to increase by more than 20% in 2028, there are no operational LNG import terminals. One of the few real projects that are in development is the Richards Bay floating storage and regasification (FSRU), with an expectation that at best, it will deliver gas by 2028, a year after the gas cliff.
An expert on energy project development, Phindile Masangane, the former chief executive of the Petroleum Agency of South Africa, has captured the core of the problem: “Each gas-to-power project faces legal challenges, often delaying development. The legal system allows for prolonged appeals, creating uncertainty and discouraging investment.
“The problem is not environmental protection per se, that’s necessary, but a regulatory process that lacks coherence, predictability and pace”
The legal framework in South Africa allows for appeals and permitting delays, which creates uncertainty, the biggest enemy of capital.
This regulatory and administrative paralysis is not necessarily because of legal overreach, but uncertainty of laws regulating the sector. Developers find themselves having to navigate elaborate complexity of inconsistent legislations, uncertainty in timelines, and fragmented oversight across government authorities.
Environmental approvals are very important but they are often prolonged by procedural dysfunctions and the law that allow for appeals, which can drag for a long time. As Masangane points out: “Some of the common showstoppers when it comes to energy project development and investments in South Africa, is litigation.”
There have been calls for clear policy direction and financial guarantees from the Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA), but there is still no integrated energy plan that effectively aligns electricity, renewables and gas. Investors are navigating the sector with no clear direction, let alone certainty.
Social licensing also stands as a significant constraint. Most developers’ approach to community stakeholder engagement is often a check-box exercise. This is a short-sighted and costly error. As Masangane points out: “Communities are not barriers; they are partners. Failing to treat them as such delays projects further and compounds distrust.”
She stressed how “Thoughtful, culturally sensitive consultation, not just bureaucratic box-ticking, is essential to secure genuine support, which in turn accelerates environmental licensing.”
Therefore, as long as project developers neglect this and the government fails to provide clear social frameworks, both environmental and legal approvals will continue to stall.
The cumulative outcome is a mixture of increasing energy demand, fast declining gas supply, gridlocked infrastructure and legal frameworks that discourage investment.
Tebelelo Lentsoane is a research and policy consultant and civic education practitioner.