The poor state of the economy and high unemployment , particularly among the youth, could create fertile ground for mass discontent. Photo: File
Like many South Africans, I have come to terms with the fact that I unconsciously subscribe to the seductive myth of South African exceptionalism — the belief that our nation, having miraculously navigated a bloodless transition in 1994, is immune to the violent upheavals that have plagued other post-colonial states.
Yet undeniable cracks are emerging, which include failing institutions, deepening inequality and a festering disillusionment. The question is no longer whether South Africa is immune, but whether we will wake up before it consumes us.
Recent events have laid bare the fragility of our political and economic order. Last month, reports surfaced that the presidency had received intelligence warnings of potential coup d’état risks — an unthinkable notion in post-1994 South Africa. Then came General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi’s damning allegations about the rot in the police and the judiciary.
This month, the rift between the executive and the military deepened when the state publicly reprimanded the head of the South African National Defence Force, General Rudzani Maphwanya for his apparently pro-Iran remarks during an official visit to Tehran.
Insecurity, it seems, marches forward unyielding, corrosive, and far from its peak.
But let us not leap into premature conclusions. History shows clear patterns behind violent upheavals. Four quintessential elements form the necessary conditions:
• Severe elite fracturing;
• Mass grievance mobilisation;
• Prolonged and multiple economic crises; and
• Complete state institutional collapse.
The presence of these elements in South Africa’s reality demands clear-eyed assessment.
With regard to elite fracturing, undeniably the government demonstrates instability with little tangible progress, yet its leadership — including volatile factions such as the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and the Economic Freedom Fighters — still uphold democratic virtues.
Militarily, although policy disagreements and bureaucratic tensions exist, no evidence suggests the armed forces perceive a power vacuum to exploit.
And, despite turbulence, the business sector remains aligned in its economic recovery efforts and overall national development project.
As for mass mobilisation, although South Africa has not witnessed such, growing social instability signals risks. According to police data, the country has so far recorded 27 protests a day in 2025, predominantly over service delivery failures, a telling indicator of eroding public trust. Industry experts argue, however, that this number could be much higher.
By-election data for 2025 shows that urban voter turnout has taken a nosedive, with rural participation seeing a marked increase. This signals a crisis of public trust among urban populations.
KwaZulu-Natal presents unique concerns, with its social cohesion deteriorating faster than other provinces. The region, site of the deadly 2021 riots, now shows worrying signs of ethnic mobilisation. The MK party’s emergence as a potential unifying opposition force, amplified by its narrative of political persecution against figures like Jacob Zuma, adds volatility. Yet, it remains premature to declare mass mobilisation inevitable.
A core worrying sign, however, is the country’s economic fragility, with unemployment at 33% — and 46.1% for youth. This could create fertile ground for mass discontent. Weak growth projections of 0.9% to 1.5% threaten to trigger a destructive cycle of job losses, rising inflation, collapsed consumer demand, worsening inequality and productivity declines — a situation that makes economic crisis increasingly inevitable.
As for our institutions, while South Africa’s state apparatus shows deepening fractures, complete collapse remains unlikely. Critical institutions of the state such as the judiciary demonstrate enduring resilience and maintain rule of law.
The rot, however, runs deep elsewhere — rampant corruption (the South Africa’s Global Corruption Perception Index shows a decline), eroding oversight and systemic service delivery failures plague national, provincial and local governments. These institutional cracks widen under the weight of non-transparency, but the core framework of governance still stands.
Overall, this assessment indicates that although there exists no imminent threat of violent upheaval in South Africa’s mid-term future, we cannot mistake this relative stability for safety. Without immediate course correction and tangible reform, the spectre of large-scale violence grows increasingly tangible.
The true peril lies not in some predetermined fate, but in the price of complacency. Each day of inaction narrows our opportunities, making future conflicts more likely and more brutal.
Siseko Maposa is the director of Surgetower Associates management consultancy. The views expressed are of his own opinion.