After four and half years, Russia’s war of choice against Ukraine is entering a new, especially gruesome phase – the phase of Russia destroying Ukraine’s largest cities and Ukraine destroying Russia’s economy.
Frustrated by the lack of success on the frontline, Russia is getting ready to turn to scorched earth not only Ukraine’s East and South but cities in other parts of the country, home to millions of people. With specific aim at destroying the energy supply and utilities, so that civilians would suffer more amid the coming winter. On the other hand, for the first time in years, Ukraine is capable of striking back seriously – and it will. In many instances, it does already.
Two things have changed compared to how the situation was a year ago.
First, Ukraine does not have the so-called “Patriots” now – the US-made air-defense system that defended the sky over Kyiv and other cities in recent years, the only effective remedy against ballistics. Citing munition shortage caused by its Iran campaign, the United States curtailed global sales of “Patriots” – leaving Ukraine’s sky defenseless when it comes to this kind of missiles.
Second, for the first time in years, Ukraine finally has the capabilities to hurt Russia in return. It is developing its own ballistic missiles. But even without them, it strikes where it hurts. The world has seen Russian refineries and logistic centers burn over the last couple of months. For the first time since the USSR, Russians got a taste of a true petroleum crisis.
Ukraine can incur much more pain on the aggressor now. It can – but it’s not its “plan A”.
Plan A is reaching a compromise and restoring peace immediately. Driven by desire to avoid even worse destruction, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has, once again, offered peace negotiations. Sadly, Russian President Vladimir Putin, once again, rejected the offer just as arrogantly as he rejected peace in 2022.
Despite Russia bleeding much more military every month in Ukraine than the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of Afghanistan, the Russian leader treats this war as some kind of a fun game. He publicly uses the Russian word “dvizhuha” to describe it – a slang expression usually used by Russian youth to describe a loud party. At one of the meetings with the military, he was filmed visibly amused saying “Once the war is over, what would we even do?”
Yes, Russia’s leader, the man with keys to peace, asks the question whether Russians would be comfortable enough, once this mind-boggling, disgusting and senseless bloodshed is over. No wonder the keys remain unused.
Putin is encouraged, among other things, by the reluctance of many in the “Global South” to actively push him toward peace. Instead, many still blame not Russia who started the war but Ukraine – the victim, which has to fight for its very existence.
“If Ukraine does not want to suffer – why doesn’t it surrender?” – they ask on social media. Why should it, if Russia, despite all its huffing and puffing, could not occupy Ukraine in four and half years? But most importantly – because surrendering means for Ukraine ceasing to exist not only politically but also culturally, historically and (for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians) physically. We have seen what Russia does to those to surrender: it kills, tortures, rapes, beheads, castrates. The horrific videos (for the most part, proudly posted by Russian soldiers) are all over the Internet.
Therefore, at this pivotal point, as long as Russia keeps choosing war, Ukraine will keep fighting and responding in kind with full power. None of this is what it wants though. Its “plan A” has always been peace. Not peace at any price however but peace that lets Ukraine exist, grow and be itself. Until Moscow is ready to choose it too, Kyiv will keep defending itself and praying the world would finally come to its senses and value peace enough to collectively force the aggressor to stop his disgusting aggression.
Dr Olexander Scherba is a Ukrainian diplomat, Ambassador of Ukraine to the Republic of South Africa