Coalition governments face a test beyond surviving votes of no confidence. How parties exercise shared power will determine whether divided electoral mandates produce administrations that function through collaboration, political blame shifting or opportunities for capture of state institutions.
The 2026 Indlulamithi Barometer places 72% of national indicators in Hadeda Home, characterised by quarrelsome coalitions, weak governance and stagnation; 20% in Vulture Culture, where criminal syndicates capture the state that is led by an authoritarian and populist coalition; and 8% in Weaver Work, where capable institutions and cooperation with civil society and business to enable renewal after a period of rapture.
The Indlulamithi Scenarios and Barometer also point towards a period of inflection taking shape between the 2026 local government elections and the 2029 national government elections. We might pivot either towards the Vulture Culture scenario or Weaver Work scenario, depending on the choices citizens made at the ballot.
Political rivalry and self-interest in the Hadeda Home
Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality demonstrates how repeated political changes become an enduring administrative problem.
Since the November 2021 elections, four mayors from the ANC, the DA and the National Alliance have held office. Coalition combinations shifted while 12 acting city managers passed through the administration.
The Auditor-General recorded a 67% vacancy rate among senior management in 2023/24. In May 2026, Parliament confronted prolonged acting appointments, weaknesses in financial controls and the suspension of City Manager Noxolo Nqwazi, which had cost more than R6.7 million. Replacing political leaders without rebuilding professional management leaves budgets, procurement and infrastructure programmes exposed to further disruption.
Residents encounter the consequences at their taps. Many water interruptions affected several areas, and alarmingly the Gelvandale reservoir stood at 0% and Chelsea at 9%. A failed Nooitgedagt pump cut daily pumping capacity by about 20 million litres. Sustained repairs require decisions that outlast each contest over the mayoral chain. Every inter-ruption forces families and businesses to improvise while the costs of delayed maintenance accumulate.
The City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality reveals the same tension. Its four mayors since 2021 have been from the DA, the Congress of the People and ActionSA. Political turnover coincided with administrative strain: City manager Johann Mettler was suspended in 2026. The high court ordered his reinstatement. Tshwane’s 2023/24 annual report recorded 125 vacant senior management positions out of 420, alongside two vacancies among 10 top management posts. Such gaps limit the municipality’s ability to supervise complex systems and respond quickly when procurement or infrastructure fails.
The October water contamination crisis in Bronkhorstspruit exposed the human cost of municipal failures. Government reported 408 cases of gastrointestinal illness between 7 and 18 October. Tests detected severe bacterial contamination. The treatment works supplied water without chlorination from 24 September to 14 October because of supplier difficulties and without warning residents.
The river supplying the works was polluted by sewage from dysfunctional wastewater infrastructure. Failures in treatment, procurement and communication show why political leaders must ensure that infrastructure is maintained, chemical supplies are reliable, warning systems function and standards are disclosed immediately when they fail.
The KwaZulu-Natal Government of Provincial Unity shows how narrow majorities increase the leverage of individual partners. The IFP, ANC, DA and National Freedom Party (NFP) jointly hold a one-seat majority in the 80-member provincial legislature. A single defection or withdrawal can upset the apple cart.
That vulnerability was exposed by the dispute involving NFP representative Mbali Shinga, the MEC for social development. After a court setback in October 2026 over her expulsion and legislative position, she indicated she would appeal. An inter-nal party contest therefore acquired consequences for the province’s governing majority.
A majority this narrow encourages negotiation over political support. The test is whether parties agree on policy and responsibilities or make access to resources the price of survival. Blame-shifting and surviving a vote of no confidence cannot replace duties that come with public office.
Towards Weaver Work
Weaver Work requires commitments citizens can test through transparency. Coalition agreements should be entered into upfront and published for citizens’ discernment. At bureaucratic level, managers need the authority to appoint skilled professionals without continuous political interference; and councillors need informative and timely reports to enforce accountability.
Indlulamithi SA Scenarios for 2035 show that the country’s future is neither predetermined nor beyond our influence. Moving from Hadeda Home, while preventing the potential for Vulture Culture and working towards Weaver Work requires active citizens, capable institutions, activist business and a political elite that is willing to listen and sustain collective action.
Political parties may be compelled to share power as coalition politics mature but sharing office is only the beginning. Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya is the project lead at Indlulamithi.