(Graphic: John McCann/M&G)
The steady exodus of top leaders from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to the uMkhonto weSizwe party (MK) dominated the news last month.
The words used to describe the EFF highlight the ongoing clash of personalities between the two parties and raise questions about how this will shape South Africa’s future.
The extent to which the exodus from the EFF has captured media attention has been remarkable.
In my database of 378 top online news articles from IOL, News24 and TimesLive from last month, “EFF” was the most talked-about political party — mentioned 249 times. “ANC” was mentioned 209 times.
This is the only time this has happened since I started running my database in 2020.
Strangely, the fact that the MK party is the destination for almost all the EFF defectors has not translated into as much media attention; it received only 128 mentions.
Julius Malema was, unsurprisingly, the name most strongly associated with the EFF in last month’s news, as the party leader has responded bitterly to the departures. He has called leaving the EFF an “assassination attempt”.
The verb “threaten” is used three times to refer to Malema’s actions towards Floyd Shivambu, the former deputy leader who started the exodus with his departure for the MK Party in August.
Malema has threatened to reveal compromising information about Shivambu, saying, “If I must be challenged one day and be pushed, I will talk. Don’t push me.”
The wounds left by Shivambu’s departure are evident from the fact that his name is the ninth-strongest association with “EFF”.
The second-strongest association is “MP”, referring to the various members of parliament loyal to the party who have spoken out on its behalf.
The most vociferous of these has been Sinawo Tambo, who followed Malema’s lead by threatening to release videos of Shivambu with mistresses and text messages between him and billionaire Johann Rupert, a frequent target of EFF criticism.
Tambo has also challenged Mbuyiseni Ndlozi, another EFF leader, to confirm that he intends to stay in the party.
Ndlozi’s name has the sixth-strongest association with “EFF” in last month’s news. Shivambu referred to Ndlozi as “my brother” and Tambo criticised his silence as the EFF exodus continued.
This is even though Ndlozi publicly declared loyalty to the party about a week before Tambo’s challenge.
Ndlozi has been touted by some to replace Shivambu as party deputy president at its elective conference from 13 to 16 December but Godrich Gardee is said to be Malema’s pick for the job.
Malema has dispelled rumours Ndlozi was banned from the conference. But some of his supporters have been suspended ahead of it, suggesting an attempt to weaken his position.
Lawyer Dali Mpofu’s name became the third-strongest association with “EFF” after he joined the exodus to the MK party last month.
After he left, Malema alleged he had said that he wanted the EFF to close and merge with the MK party. Mpofu has called this“a lie”, saying he merely advocated for “a unified platform” for the parties in the opposition “progressive” caucus.
The exodus has strained the relationship between the EFF and the MK party as the two biggest parties in the “progressive” caucus. “MK” is the fifth-strongest association with “EFF” in last month’s news, and “MKP” is the eighth-strongest due to descriptions of this relationship.
Malema said the EFF “would not form any ties with the MK party” because it had recruited so many of its former leaders but would only collaborate with it in parliament as part of the so-called progressive caucus.
Malema has gone as far as to call the MK party the EFF’s “biggest enemy”.
The words “leader” and “leaders” show an intriguing interplay in descriptions of the EFF in the news.
“Leader”, the word with the fourth-strongest association with “EFF”, almost always refers to Malema but “leaders” has the seventh-strongest association and refers mainly to those who have defected to the MK party or to the party’s criticisms of its own current office-bearers.
An EFF discussion document was quoted as saying “A substantial number of the EFF leaders, mostly those deployed in positions of responsibility, are not loyal to the organisation, but loyal to their positions of deployment” and “provincial leaders don’t know the length and breadth of their provinces”.
Malema criticised “EFF leaders who have been silent during their times of troubles”, with some taking this as a veiled jab at Ndlozi.
The EFF exodus raises a couple of questions. First, what are EFF leaders’ reasons for jumping ship to the MK party? Second, what does this all mean for South Africa’s future?
While we don’t know enough yet to answer these questions exhaustively, what we do know gives us food for speculation.
The reason Mpofu gave for his defection was, “We need to take the shortest route.” One way to decode this is that the EFF and MK party’s goals are seen as so similar that they might as well be the same party.
Because the MK party has hauled in the voters at the polls, it is seen as a shorter route to political power than that offered by the EFF. In other words, the exodus might be all about political expediency.
In addition, even last month’s news hints at the fallout from autocratic decisions by Malema and the ways in which its more junior leaders have been denigrated.
It could be that Malema’s personality cult and the organisational culture are contributing to the exodus.
How might this shape South Africa’s political landscape? The conflict between the EFF and the MK party already seems to be weakening the opposition to the government of national unity (GNU).
Opinions about this are likely to be mixed. On one hand, we do need opposition to hold the GNU accountable. But, on the other, the MK party and EFF already have the number of seats in parliament that they are going to have for the next five years.
Presumably, they will vote together on the matters they agree on, and votes will be split where they differ. Nothing much changes there.
In the longer term, however, the exodus raises questions about whether South Africa can sustain a system with four large parties — the ANC, Democratic Alliance, MK party and EFF —or whether there is only space for one larger party to the left of the ANC.
Whereas, before the elections, the MK party seemed like it might be a one-election wonder, increasingly, it is the sustainability of the EFF that is in doubt. If the MK party can recruit strong enough young leadership to outlive Jacob Zuma, it might be the opposition party that remains.
What also remains to be seen is whether both the EFF and MK party will grow past their politics of resentment, both towards the ANC and each other, and whether they will come to offer a more positive case for their visions for an alternative South Africa.
Ian Siebörger is a senior lecturer in the department of linguistics and applied language studies in the faculty of humanities at Rhodes University.