Hopeful: Residents of Blantyre attend a rally addressed by President Lazarus Chakwera before the 16 September election. Frustration with poor economic performance is high and a poll suggests 96% of Malawians are intending to vote. Photo: Government of Malawi
Five years after a court-ordered vote in 2020 electrified the continent, Malawians head to the polls under the shadow of drought, inflation and vanishing trust in government.
Once a symbol of Africa’s democratic renewal, Malawi is now spiralling into crisis. With its currency in freefall, families scavenging for food, and corruption scandals tainting the highest offices, September’s election may determine whether the state itself can hold together.
As Malawians prepare to vote on 16 September, the nation faces overlapping emergencies: economic collapse, hunger and the erosion of public trust.
What should be a routine tripartite election, for president, parliament and local councils, has instead become a referendum on whether democracy itself can withstand the strain.
Malawi has been here before. Since independence in 1964, the country has oscillated between authoritarianism and fragile democracy. Its first multiparty elections in 1994 ended 30 years of one-party rule under Hastings Banda. Since then, Malawi’s democratic record has been uneven, marked by disputed elections, donor suspensions and recurrent scandals.
The reformist promises that swept President Lazarus Chakwera, of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), to power in 2020, on the back of the Tonse Alliance, a coalition that united opposition forces, once raised hopes of a new era. That election was celebrated worldwide as a triumph of judicial independence, after the Constitutional Court annulled the 2019 results because of irregularities.
But by 2025, Chakwera’s government has become engulfed in the very problems it vowed to overcome: a collapsing currency, an El Niño-driven drought, and scandals at the highest levels.
“This is no longer just a policy debate — it’s a survival crisis,” an aid worker in Lilongwe observed. “Hospitals are plunged into darkness from rolling blackouts. Families are surviving on wild roots and tubers. The public sector is falling apart.”
Political analyst Dan Msowoya reflects: “The democratic system is faced with serious challenges. As someone who was part of the transformative initiative, I hoped for significant reformation, but sadly the delivery has been problematic, leading to public dissatisfaction. It would be a grand opportunity for the opposition, but tragically, they lack the wisdom to know the right people to champion their effort.”
Malawi’s economy has long been among the most aid-dependent in Africa, vulnerable to climate shocks and reliant on subsistence agriculture.
Tobacco, tea and sugar dominate exports, but the majority of households depend on rain-fed farming, making the country acutely vulnerable to drought.
The kwacha lost 44% of its value in November 2023 and has since depreciated further, leaving Malawi among Africa’s weakest currencies. The devaluation was part of an International Monetary Fund-backed reform programme aimed at stabilising the economy, but in practice it pushed millions deeper into poverty.
Inflation averaged 32% in 2024, with food inflation exceeding 40%. A 50kg bag of maize now costs more than 75 000 Malawi kwacha (R755), well beyond the reach of most households where daily wages average just $2 (R35). Fertiliser shortages have compounded the crisis.
In March 2024, Chakwera declared a state of disaster in 23 districts. The World Food Programme estimates that by early 2025, 5.7 million Malawians, nearly one in four, could face acute food insecurity, a humanitarian emergency on par with the 2016 drought.
“The economy is visibly in shambles,” Msowoya argues. “Poverty is aggravated, inflation rampant, and public distrust deepens as livelihoods crumble.”
Malawi’s politics have been marred by high-profile scandals for more than a decade. The 2013 Cashgate scandal revealed systemic looting of public funds, leading to donor suspensions and public anger.
The ongoing Zuneth Sattar affair has reopened those wounds. In 2022, Britain’s National Crime Agency charged Sattar with 18 counts of corruption linked to inflated government contracts worth more than $150 million. Allegations implicated senior figures in the police, military and presidency.
Yet in Malawi, prosecutions have stalled, fuelling a sense of impunity.
“Rampant corruption has eroded public trust in institutions,” Msowoya says. “Scandals such as the Sattar case, echoing Cashgate, are an insult to the rule of law.”
The consequences are stark. Donors, who fund nearly a third of Malawi’s budget, have suspended or redirected aid. The World Bank, the UK and the EU cite accountability concerns, leaving critical development and climate-resilience programmes underfunded.
The political landscape reflects both fragmentation and fatigue. According to the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) August 2025 survey, former president Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party leads with 41%, followed by Chakwera at 31%. The United Transformation Movement’s (UTM) Dalitso Kabambe trails with 6%, Atupele Muluzi of the United Democratic Front (UDF) with 3%, and former president and leader of the People’s Party Joyce Banda with 2%.
Eleven percent remain undecided.
Mutharika, now 85, campaigns under the slogan “Fix This Mess,” promising stability after Chakwera’s turbulent term.
Yet his age and track record raise doubts. Chakwera, meanwhile, has clawed back some support since July but remains weighed down by economic failures.
Running mates may shift dynamics. Jane Ansah, former head of the Malawi Electoral Commission, is the most recognised at 30%, though polarising. The MCP’s Vitumbiko Mumba (19%) and the UTM’s Matthews Mtumbuka (6%) enjoy stronger favourability where known.
“Electoral results are likely to be disputed, posing a threat of a constitutional crisis,” warns Msowoya. “With 17 presidential candidates, the chances of failing to attain the 50%+1 requirement are very high.”
Malawi has one of the youngest populations in the world, with a median age of 17.5. In 2020, the youth helped mobilise the protests that led to the historic court-ordered rerun. Today, their frustration is palpable.
The August IPOR poll found 96% of respondents intend to vote, with 54% attending a rally in the past year. With unemployment above 50% among young people, combined with high nomination fees and exclusion from party structures, their voices are muted. Food shortages (29%) and economic management (29%) are the top voter concerns, followed by anti-corruption commitments (51%).
“Politics will stay stuck unless we bring young people into the fold,” says Charles Kajoloweka, Charles Kajoloweka, executive director of Youth and Society. “They face huge barriers to participation, while the issues that matter most to them, jobs and the cost of living, are being ignored.”
Despite the turmoil, 70% of Malawians believe their vote will remain secret and 80% trust the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) to reflect the results accurately.
Still, doubts persist. The MEC, judiciary and security forces have all faced criticism for inefficiency or bias. “Weak institutions like the MEC and judiciary face stern criticism for perceived biases and inefficiency,” notes Msowoya.
The stakes extend beyond Malawi. The country has long been seen as a test case for democratic resilience in Southern Africa.
A disputed election or constitutional crisis could ripple across the region, undermining confidence in democratic processes at a time when authoritarian tendencies are resurging elsewhere on the continent.
“This election isn’t just about who wins,” says political analyst Dennis Beru. “It’s about whether the system can deliver a legitimate mandate in a deeply divided country.”
In 2020, Malawi was celebrated as a beacon of democratic renewal. In 2025, that beacon flickers. On 16 September, Malawians will deliver a verdict that reaches far beyond who governs next.
It will decide whether one of Africa’s most celebrated democratic experiments can step back from the brink — or sink deeper into crisis.
Collins Mtika is the executive director and editor of the Centre for Investigative Journalism Malawi and Malawi correspondent for Reporters without Borders.