Africa’s lithium boom won’t last forever. Recent lithium discovery in Germany will change the calculation regarding the metal in Europe which sources most of its lithium from China. Photo: Dianah Chiyangwa
It was all cigars for Zimbabwe’s lithium exporters for the first six months of this year following a reported 30% surge in exports. For the government it was a more sober moment as the boom repeated an age-old pattern where unrefined commodities escaped Africa without being processed. No wonder the government of Zimbabwe has announced a crackdown on unrefined lithium exports.
Africa’s lithium boom won’t last forever. Recent lithium discovery in Germany will change the calculation regarding the metal in Europe which sources most of its lithium from China. The US, where one commercial mine is currently operating, is also expanding its local production. The Trump administration has sought to ensure greater mineral security for the US.
Similarly, the EU passed legislation last year to better secure its lithium. At the start of last year, Portugal was the only EU country mining lithium — albeit a relatively small amount strictly for pottery production. A promising Rio Tinto site in Serbia and the development of lithium brines in brownfield sites in Germany are other possibilities.
Concerns over China’s domination of this industry is the primary driving concern.
The Polish government announced a €240 million grant to fund a battery recycling facility, which was labelled strategic by the EU last month.
South Africa is doing well, if not a continental leader, and already has an operating recycling plant. Such operations are important, yet only a few countries in Africa have the capacity for lithium recycling.
As policymakers look at recycling and new mines, engineers whisper another possibility — building batteries that simply use less lithium or none at all. Sodium is one potential element.
South Africa is an interested observer in the ongoing global lithium rush. The country has deposits that have, criminally, not been exploited more. It is also a potential global leader in manganese — another mineral that could place lithium and is already critical in battery production for cathodes.
In the long run, mineral refining is almost more important than having strategic reserves. For example, many of the so-called rare earth elements are not that rare — there has just been relatively little prospecting for them. Lithium itself is one of the world’s most common elements. However, given current technology, only a handful of deposits are commercially viable.
At present, just a handful of countries control large swaths of processing capacity for these minerals, which include lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel and rare earth elements.
Supply disruptions, whether geopolitical, logistical or regulatory, could ripple catastrophically into battery production, renewable infrastructure deployment and semiconductor supply.
Enter the traders
While much of the discussion around strategic minerals focuses on mining (upstream) or refining (downstream), it is the middle stream where a number of profoundly important shifts are occurring.
Commodity traders in these roles are no longer content to trade after the fact and are going upstream, investing in mines, processing plants and integrated supply platforms to anchor controllable access.
Take Trafigura, one of the world’s major commodity traders, for example. In August, the Australian government pledged A$135 million ($87 million) to support smelters owned by Trafigura’s Nyrstar unit in Port Pirie and Hobart in exchange for commitments to develop critical mineral outputs like antimony and bismuth from byproducts. Traders are increasingly pressured to convert legacy operations into transition-ready facilities.
In parallel, Glencore has been active in the development of projects involving lithium. In 2022, it announced a long-term supply agreement with Li-Cycle, a company that focuses on recycling lithium batteries. Then, in August this year, Glencore finalised the acquisition of Li-Cycle. These private sector investments, often supported by governments, are crucial to ensure a robust supply chain.
Amid these shifts, BGN International is rising in prominence. Traditionally known for trading oil and gas, the company announced in September the establishment of a metals trading desk in Geneva, Switzerland, to broaden its portfolio into battery and transition metals. While that move might seem incremental, the firm’s ambitions are anchored by its American subsidiary, BGN USA, dedicated to responsibly channelling African critical minerals toward US and global markets.
BGN USA was formed to secure upstream access, negotiate sourcing deals and build platforms that facilitate traceable supply chains from Africa into Western markets. Though BGN is not a major miner, it is pushing forward with upstream integration by lining up partners in Africa and exploring investment in mining and refining pathways. This is indicative of a broader generational pivot — traders once centred on energy or fossil commodities are now placing bets on the physical building blocks of clean tech.
The transition from oil and gas to lithium is easy for some commodity traders, as many oil and gas fields contain lithium deposits. Those with the potential to generate lithium brines can be developed on brownfield sites with minimal impact.
Africa’s critical role
Africa looms large in any equation. The continent hosts abundant reserves of copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese and rare earths, making it a new frontier for responsible mining investment. But that promise comes with intense scrutiny.
The existing ESG frameworks have been disastrous for African mining, often enabling Chinese-backed projects with weak labor and environmental oversight, such as copper operations in Zambia and graphite operations in Mozambique, while penalizing Western firms that adhere to stricter standards. African governments and civil society now expect foreign partners to deliver more than just capital. They demand local content, community investment, equitable job creation, and environmental safeguards. A miner that fails to meet those expectations risks losing its social license to operate.
In practice, firms like Trafigura, Glencore and BGN are trying to respond. Trafigura’s smelter restructuring in Australia is part of a pattern of integrated moves towards downstream processing and value capture. Glencore’s engagements with US refining projects reflect its dual identity as miner and trader. And BGN’s American interface via BGN USA gives it a structural bridge into US policy, regulatory systems and commercial markets.
Still, the upstream shift comes with obstacles. Mines can take a long time to get permits, capital costs are steep and technical complexity is daunting. Market volatility can erase margins overnight. And building trust with local partners and governments is far more complex than signing offtake contracts at a desk. These middle stream traders will play a vital role.
The era of ESG as marketing rhetoric is giving way to one defined by industrial pragmatism and supply-chain accountability. Commodity traders, miners and refiners alike are being judged by the assets they build, the transparency they deliver and the impact they leave behind. Whether it’s global giants like Trafigura and Glencore, or newer entrants positioning in Africa, the race for critical minerals is redrawing the map of modern resource politics while shifting the narrative from optics to output and from promises to production.
Joseph Hammond is a journalist and former Fulbright Public Policy fellow with the government of Malawi. Hammond has been a recipient of fellowships organised by several think tanks, including the National Endowment for Democracy, the Atlantic Council of the United States, the Heinrich Boll Stiftung North America Foundation and the Policy Center for the New South’s Atlantic Dialogue.