With four teams jammed at the top of the log, working out the permutations on paper is harder than playing it out on the field
RUGBY: Jon Swift
PERHAPS the greatest thing about sport is its unpredictability: the propensity of competition to turn the form book on its head; the sudden lapse of concentration which leads the most focused of professionals to suddenly and inexplicably revert to the status of rank amateur.Any number of occurrences in the Super 12 competition over the past 10 days have tended to prove rather than disprove the theory that just when you think something’s cut and dried, it isn’t.Inside four days, the three-nation provincial championships has ridden the switchback of change to such a degree that not even those erudite persons with degrees in higher mathematics can comfortably predict the venues for the semi- finals.Take the results of the Natal- Queensland debacle and the Transvaal-Auckland upset as a prime example. The direct result of these two games means that there is a theoretical chance of three sides finishing their 11-game programmes on 37 points.When Natal self-destructed in the dying minutes of the match against Queensland and allowed Jason Little in for the converted try which altered the scoreline from a fairly comfortable 20-14 for Banana Bafana to a heartrending 21-20 against, even the King’s Park push-up parade fell flat on their faces.It was a staggering end to a game that Natal should never have conceded — despite the plethora of wrong options — given the intensity of the way they went about their business. And it looked like Natal had irrecovably lost the chance of playing their semi-final at home, and that Northerns would have to travel Down Under to battle for a place in the final.Not quite, for then came the superb 34-22 Transvaal victory over Auckland at Ellis Park that stood the situation on its head yet again.Here was a Transvaal side playing — arguably for the first time this season — with the intensity, speed and purpose of which they have always been capable.It should be added that the afterglow of the way Francois Pienaar’s side took the much-vaunted All Black-laden side apart will linger. There is something special about a South African side at any level rubbing the noses of the New Zealanders in it.It also had the effect of lifting the Lions of Ellis Park out of the bargain basement and left Canterbury to hold the wooden spoon until the Super 12 becomes Super 16 next time round.Also as an aside, before running a rule over the possibilities which still exist in the closing games of the tournament, was the return of Johan le Roux to the Transvaal front row.You cannot condone Le Roux’s often infamous conduct record on the field of play.An examination of his actions fails him miserably in the subject of control, but you have to give the 34-year-old a PhD in tenacity. With seemingly everything — and arguably everybody — against him, Le Roux has refused to lie down.The mindless loss of control that saw him try to take a chunk out of All Black skipper Sean Fitzpatick’s ear during the 1994 Test in New Zealand cost Le Roux 19 months out of the game and surely spelt the end of the international career he had worked so long and hard to get off the ground.But he refused to lie down, taking his case to the courts (he lost) and his body to the gym (one would concede that he won in this respect) to keep in tune for the return he was determined on.His strength in the tough business of holding up the tighthead brought him straight back into the Transvaal side at the end of his suspension and off Le Roux went Down Under with the touring Super 12 side.Then came the contretemps with the ACT Brumbies, and he was back in exile for another seven weeks.His return against Auckland — even with the visage of Fitzpatrick foursquare in front of him at every set piece — added some much- needed stability to the Transvaal front row.With Northern Transvaal already certain semi-finalists and Natal only short of a point of making their spot sure, they will be looking for the same brand of rugby from Transvaal in their final Super 12 outing against Queensland on Saturday.If they manage victory by the same margin against the Reds, Natal and Northerns are still in with a big say on home ground advantage.
But this still depends on both of them winning their last matches — Northerns against Western Province at Newlands on Friday night, and Natal against Auckland on Saturday.Both sides, though, will have to ensure that they score four or more tries for the bonus point and that they deny their opponents the seven- point gap which would likewise earn an extra point to break the logjam at the top.This perhaps unlikely eventuality would have the Blue Bulls at the top of the pile with a semi- final at Loftus.That said, if the other three contestants do finish level on points — and maintain something akin to the current points- scoring margins — Natal will land up in second spot and there is the very real prospect of the other semi-final being played at King’s Park.It’s really too much to try and work out on paper. Far better to sit back, relax and let the players sort it out among themselves.