Retail figures from 1998 have been revised following criticism of their adjustment in June to reflect an expanded register of South African businesses, Statistics SA said on Thursday.
In its June release, Stats SA said retail trade for 2003 was 20% higher than previously reported. The figure was based on an expanded business register drawn from the SA Revenue Services’ VAT database.
Stats SA then used the difference between the old and the new figures for January 2003 ‒- 25% — to back cast all retail sales figures to January 1998.
”Unfavourable user comments arising as a result of this back casting method has resulted in Stats SA reviewing its position,” the agency said in a statement on Thursday.
Instead of the January 2003 figure, it has now revised the figures taking seasonal patterns into consideration — giving a more realistic picture.
Stats SA said it had also adjusted its retail sales statistics for January to April after complaints that they were unrealistic.
The problem arose from a ”slip up” in programming that led to information from many big retailers not being captured, Stats SA consultant George Sarossy told reporters in Pretoria.
The figure for January was revised from 9,1% to 13,1%, for February from 10,4% to 14,7%, for March from 6,1% to 9,3%, and for April from 4,4% to 11,3%.
The preliminary figure for May was 13,9%.
Sarossy said new control measures have been put in place to ensure something like this did not happen again.
Stats SA warned that further revisions would occur for at least the next 18 months as the agency updated its methodology. The business register would also be upgraded shortly, possibly requiring further back casting.
”This is all part of ensuring that the quality of our statistics improves continuously,” statistician-general Pali Lehohla said.
SA Statistics Council chairperson Hilary Southall sought to assure citizens that there had been no ”funny business or juggling of figures”.
The upgrading exercise at Stats SA was a major step forward and should be welcomed, she added.
Southall also hailed the fact that errors were being admitted rather than swept under the carpet.
”Such openness and transparency is really the only way we are going to build trust.”
In its latest release, Stats SA said retail trade sales at constant 2000 prices for the three months to May increased by 8,4% compared to the same period last year.
For January to May, the figure increased by 9,4%, and by 10,3% for May compared to May last year. – Sapa