Supporters of the ruling African National Congress man their party stand outside a polling station in Hangberg, an area of Houtbay, near Cape Town, on November 1, 2021, during South Africa's local elections. (Photo by RODGER BOSCH / AFP)
Seemingly unperturbed by the numbers, the ANC’s deputy secretary general, Jessie Duarte, believes the ANC is doing well in the local government elections.
In an interview with the Mail & Guardian at the Electoral Commission of South Africa’s (IEC) results centre, Duarte was of the view that the party was “doing okay”.
At about 7pm, Duarte said the ANC was performing well in the City of Johannesburg, adding that they were certain that the party would regain Buffalo City metropolitan municipality. She also highlighted the eThekwini region, where the ANC has enjoyed a clear victory since 1994.
“What we are disappointed about is the turnout and I think it should be a concern for everybody in the country, especially because it relates to what we are going to do about the youth vote in the country. We think we are okay. We have kept all the wards that we previously had. We have won a few wards from the DA and some from EFF in Rustenburg, for instance,” she said.
ANC losing votes
But, based on projections by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), the ANC is predicted to show a loss in the number of votes in seven of the eight metros.
In Johannesburg, the party is set to lose about 10% of the votes. In 2016 it had garnered 44.9% of the votes. The CSIR projects the party will only get 34.4% of the vote this year.
Duarte was not willing to discuss coalitions, saying that the ANC would hold its extended national working executive committee meeting on Friday, when they will iron out specifics on how the party will approach negotiations.
“We have some good experiences and some very bad experiences so that will also inform how we make a decision, but we will make that decision collectively,” she said.
According to the projections, the ANC will lose about 17% of its votes in eThekwini metro. In 2016, the party got 59.1% of the votes in that municipality. It is projected that it will only get 42% this year.
Another loss for the party will probably be in the City of Ekurhuleni metropolitan municipality, where the party is projected to get 10.5% less than it did in 2016. The CSIR’s figures show the party will come in at under 39% of the vote. The Democratic Alliance is expected to lose about 5% of the vote, with the Economic Freedom Fighters possibly gaining about 2% of the votes.
In 2016, the ANC got 41.5% of the votes in the City of Tshwane metropolitan municipality. The projections show an 8.2% decline and possibly scraping together 33.3% of the vote. This leaves the DA with a slight advantage in the municipality.
Although holding onto the City of Cape Town, the DA is predicted to lose a number of votes. In 2016, the blue party had a resounding 66.8% win. The projections show that the party will probably see 56% of the votes.
In Nelson Mandela Bay metropolitan municipality the DA is predicted to face the biggest decline — 4.6%. The projections suggest the DA will get 42% of the votes, followed by the ANC at 39%.
ANC lashed in KwaZulu-Natal
In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC has lost wards and councils to both the DA and the Inkatha Freedom Party, with the latter appearing to be the biggest winner at the polls in the province.
The governing party is predicted to take 42.8% in the province — it took 58.9% in 2016 — with the IFP expected to come in second with 24.3% and the DA in third placed with about 14.4% of the vote.
In the eThekwini metro, the CSIR projected that the ANC would take 41.9% of the vote, a huge drop from the 59.1% it took in 2016.
The DA is projected to lose about 1% from its 2016 tally of 27.5%, while the IFP is expected to more than double 2016’s result of 4.3% and take 10.8%.
The EFF, which took 3.6% in 2016, is also expected to grow in eThekwini — again at the ANC’s expense — and take an eventual 11%.
The ANC’s losses are not restricted to the eThekwini metro.
The DA secured a historic victory in the uMngeni local municipality, which includes Howick and Nottingham Road, by taking 13 of the 25 seats and reversing the 9% margin the ANC had enjoyed in 2016.
DA KwaZulu-Natal provincial leader Francois Rodgers described the result as a “watershed victory” that the party had “planned and worked extremely hard to achieve”.
Rodgers said the DA was “ready to serve the people of uMngeni” and would “prove to the citizens of our province that where we govern, we govern well”.
The IFP appears to have won back control of the King Cetshwayo, uMzinyathi and uThukela district municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, continuing to build on its 2019 electoral gains.
The party is expecting to increase its margin in Nkandla, where it took control of former president Jacob Zuma’s ward — ward 14 — where it secured a resounding victory with 61.6% of the vote.
The IFP is also expected to consolidate its control over the uMkhanyakude and Zululand districts, taking wards in Nquthu and Vryheid and reversing the ANC’s 2016 gains in both municipalities.
Hung councils in Western Cape
In the Western Cape, after vote processing had been completed on Tuesday afternoon in half of the province’s 30 municipalities, 12 were heading for hung councils.
Only three — Bergrivier, Swartland and Hessequa — had an outright majority, with the DA polling more than 50% in all three.
Hung councils were the order of the day in Laingsburg, Cederberg, Knysna, Cape Agulhas, Theewaterskloof, Langenberg, Witzenberg, Oudtshoorn, Prince Albert, Beaufort-West, Saldanha Bay and Kannaland.
ANC in decline
The ANC’s decline in these local government elections is said to signal that the governing party is on its way out. Political analyst Ongama Mtimka said that if compromises continue to be made between the two factions the ANC will remain in this state, “which is neither going or coming as far as the electorate are concerned”.
“The party tends to have this inward focus in its membership as opposed to the wider support base. The membership does not determine electoral victory. What determines electoral victory is the wider support base which is more sensitive to questions of integrity and renewal than the internal party stakeholders,” he said.
Mtimka said the low voter turnout has aided the decline of the ANC in the metros and the party was suffering from broad dissatisfaction with it.
The ANC’s candidate selection process, which some party members and supporters have expressed dissatisfaction with, could also be credited for the party’s decline.
In the past months, ANC members were killed during the selection of council candidates. And in some instances, members threatened to take the party to court.
The disillusionment of ANC supporters was palpable during its campaign rallies and door-to-door visits; supporters heckled party president Cyril Ramaphosa and his deputy, David Mabuza, during their “apology tour”.
Even the ANC’s tried and tested strategy of handing out T-shirts did not hit the right note.
Mtimka said parties need to engage with the electorate’s issues in a much more respectful, responsive way. “Parties saw, campaign massaging was being opposed on the ground by people who kept on saying ‘our lived experience is different from what you are saying’. People are demanding accountability and the onus is on political parties to modernise the candidate selection process to respond to the needs”
Mtimka believes the pain threshold of South Africans had been reached by the time the ANC owned up to its mistakes. “Any measures done in a period of a year or two could never reverse this experience,” he said. “All that is going to be needed is a longer period of unrelenting reforms, which will then give the electorate the indication that this is not yet another electoral ploy to woo supporters without making any fundamental change.”
Mtimka agreed with Duarte, saying the low voter turnout demonstrated a lack of confidence in the political system, especially the rituals of democracy. He added that people are creating platforms for themselves to work with the political and economic elite rather than the invited stages such as voting and public participation.
“We are in a society with a permissive environment for service delivery protests and for civil unrest. For civil war and for civil unrest to happen, you simply need the environment that currently exists in South Africa,” he said.
During a manifesto preview in September, Ramaphosa said the party had high expectations of the ANC council candidates to display leadership and inspire party volunteers through their example of hard work, discipline and dedication.
He said council candidates must not make empty promises, but rather listen to people to find lasting solutions.
“They must remain in close and constant contact with residents, providing information, answering questions and addressing concerns. As part of the renewal of our movement, and to strengthen local government leadership, we have implemented a rigorous interview process to select ANC mayoral candidates. This is to ensure that every person who is placed in this crucial leadership position in ANC-led municipalities has the experience, capabilities and commitment to fulfil that responsibility.”
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