Up to one in five people can get long COVID — a condition in which someone keeps on feeling ill for months after their initial symptoms have cleared up. (Paul Botes)
South Africans have little to fear from the globally emerging mild BA 2.75 variant of Omicron, known as the Centaurus variant, because the country has a world-beating infectious disease surveillance system and 90% population immunity.
That’s the message from two of the country’s respected Covid-19 scientists, Tulio de Oliveira, a world-renowned bioinformatician and director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, and virologist Shabir Madhi, dean of the faculty of health sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand.
But both stressed that a mitigation strategy of vaccinating vulnerable high-risk groups should be prioritised in this “inter-wave” period because the BA 2.75 variant, although mild, was extremely transmissible, with some additional mutations of the initial Omicron variants.
This means it can more easily reinfect people and potentially break through vaccine protection.
De Oliveira, who leads Covid-19 surveillance at 10 sites in the country issuing weekly reports, said no BA 2.75 variant infections had been identified in South Africa by midday on Wednesday. Existing Omicron variant incidence stood at two to three hundred cases detected daily, the lowest yet.
He added: “In spite of B2.75 being detected in another 10 or 15 countries, we’ve not seen in the global public database a fast increase in the number of its genomes. This could be for two reasons. Either it’s not spreading widely in other countries, or they are not doing large enough surveillance. My personal opinion is one should be alert about it but not very concerned at the moment.”
Madhi was critical of mask mandates, saying achieving a high penetration of Covid-19 booster vaccination among vulnerable high-risk groups was “the only effective strategy”.
“Mask mandates only work if you’re trying to prevent infection by using the right mask, wearing it correctly and remaining adherent. That’s the bottom line.
“Everything else, including mask mandates is Covid political theatre,” he said.
“The reality in the SA context is that we won’t be distributing N95 masks, (the most effective one available), when people are still dependent on the bucket system for toilets. If we haven’t learnt in two and a half years that we’ve been singularly unsuccessful in preventing infection, then we’re living on another planet.
“We certainly wouldn’t have 90% of South Africans infected, some with multiple infections, if mask mandates worked. During the [Omicron] BA 1 wave in Gauteng, 60% of people were infected in a single wave during the mask mandate, many with reinfections and breakthrough infections. Politicians can continue clamouring about the virtue of mask mandates but given our material conditions we’re simply unable to use them effectively.”
De Oliveira added that with N95 masks costing more than R200 each and a population of more than 50-million, this was financially impossible.
Although he agreed with Madhi on targeting vulnerable groups for urgent vaccination, he was more equivocal on masks.
“South Africa was one of the last countries in the world to stop mask wearing — after two and half years. I think it was right to give people a break. Our health minister has warned he might reinstate the mask mandate if we get a big infection surge, which has scientists divided.
“I’m a bit ambivalent because the mandate is mostly for cloth face masks and getting N95s out to everyone is too expensive.
“The ordinary face mask is not that effective, as highlighted scientifically, but I do think it brings a more careful approach by the population — and South Africa has been far more accepting of them than other countries.”
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