The ANC integrity commission faces backlash over allegations of factional targeting in Limpopo. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
With the governing party having set its sights on securing at least 11 million votes, three of the ANC’s provincial secretaries are under pressure to deliver at least 70% of the poll for the party to retain its majority.
But the secretaries of Limpopo, North West and Mpumalanga told the Mail & Guardian they are confident the party will retain their provinces on 29 May.
In a recently leaked recording of an ANC national executive committee meeting, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the party needed 14 million votes to clinch a victory.
The party is hoping to retain its majority by increasing its voter share in rural provinces, given that forecasts show it will lose support in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, the provinces with the biggest population of registered voters.
Ramaphosa is apparently expecting Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape and Limpopo to shoulder the weight of the party’s electoral results.
ANC Limpopo secretary Reuben Madadzhe told the M&G this week that they were confident the party would win the provincial elections with more than 80% of votes. This is higher than the 75.49% the party received in the 2019 election.
Madadzhe said the party did not anticipate any drop in percentages since the previous election, adding that their election strategy had inspired optimism.
“I addressed a rally in Modimolle-Mookgophong. It’s the smallest municipality in the province located in deep farms; there were more than 7000 people [in attendance], so we are confident as the province that our plans have yielded results.”
He said opposition parties in Limpopo had failed to show their strength during the campaign season.
The ANC’s biggest opponent in the province has been the Economic Freedom Fighters. The EFF is forecasted to plateau in these elections, having scored owned goals after its leader, Julius Malema, axed its provincial structure following poor result in the 2021 elections.
In the hope of regaining some momentum, the EFF will host its final rally at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane.
“If you look generally in the province of Limpopo, programmes that are seen to be massive are the programmes of the ANC. We filled Malamulele Stadium with more than 25,000 people; some couldn’t get inside. There were more people outside than there were inside,” Madadzhe said.
He said their regions, branches and local election teams had been “aggressive” in driving the ANC message.
The ANC’s national elections machinery has been slow to campaign in the problematic North West. It incurred significant losses in the province during the 2021 elections.
Factional infighting led to a vacuum in leadership for close to three years. Smaller parties have mushroomed and threaten the ANC’s prospects of retaining its majority.
Despite interventions by its national leaders, the ANC has continued to run dysfunctional municipalities in the province, which have been flagged by the auditor general.
But the North West’s provincial secretary, Louis Diremelo, said it is aiming for 75% in this month’s polls. This would be a considerable increase from the 61.87% it received in the 2019 elections.
“This is our dream and we are hoping that it will be realised,” he said.
The ANC would do well in the provincial elections because of a “weak” and “nonexistent” opposition.
He said his biggest fear was ANC voters staying away to punish the party for its service delivery failures.
“We are talking to our people, [telling them] that we acknowledge mistakes in terms of service delivery and we want them to come out and vote, not just sit and be angry.”
During a visit to Ngaka Modiri Molema district municipality in May last year, Ramaphosa warned ANC branches that the party would lose the elections if factionalism, divisions and infighting continued.
The divisions saw the party lose the Ditsobotla local municipality in the December 2021 by-elections, with its support dropping from 51% to 39%. This resulted in a hung municipality, forcing the ANC to form a coalition with smaller parties.
Ramaphosa said it was concerning that he was leading an organisation that was not united when it faced its most difficult election.
Diremelo said the party agrees with the citizens of the province that there are several “challenges”, but it was working to resolve them.
He said the party was encouraged by recent by-elections that showed the party was doing well in the province.
“[In] all the by-elections we participated in, we did extremely well. Even with the by-elections we held last week Wednesday in Ward 1 Madibeng, the Umkhonto weSizwe party (MK) got 1%, and the EFF got less than 20%. We did very well.”
Mpumalanga is among the provinces the newly formed MK party is aiming to steal from the governing party.
In Mpumalanga in the 2014 elections, the party received 78% of the vote and in 2019 this declined to 70.58%. Despite this, provincial secretary Muzi Chirwa believes the province can improve on this.
Chirwa said the party was working towards achieving an ambitious 85% of the vote next week.
The work and the surveys the ANC has done showed that people were satisfied with what the party has been doing in the province.
He said a report presented in an extended provincial elections team meeting confirmed that people in Mpumalanga still had confidence in the ANC and wanted to vote it back into power.
“In a gathering of about 100 people, you may find that three or four are negative. This makes us confident that we will deliver an overwhelming and decisive victory for the ANC.”