The El Niño-induced drought and heatwave in February and March hit crops hard in Southern Africa. (Conrad Bornman/Gallo Images)
Southern Africa’s economic growth is significantly lagging other regions on the continent, according to a new African Development Bank (AfDB) report.
The 2024 African Economic Outlook report, launched during the AfDB’s annual meetings in Nairobi, Kenya, on Thursday, projects that GDP in Southern Africa will grow by 2.2% in 2024 and by 2.7% in 2025.
This is well below forecasts for other regions. For example, the AfDB projects East Africa’s economic growth to pick up to 4.9% and 5.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. West Africa GDP could grow by 4.2% in this year and 4.4% in 2025.
Southern Africa’s economy could be hit by weaker-than-expected growth in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Lesotho. South Africa’s improved economic performance — probably the result of less severe load-shedding — is expected to offset these losses.
According to the report, the downward revision in Zambia’s growth forecast reflects the lingering effects of a recent cholera outbreak, which coincided with the country’s worst drought in two decades.
On top of inflicting a severe blow to Zambia’s maize output, the drought hit the country’s electricity supply, more than 80% of which comes from hydropower.
Zimbabwe faces similar conditions, the report notes. This as the country reels from El Niño, which has also hit tobacco production.
On South Africa, the region’s economic powerhouse, the report states: “Although growth remains tepid in South Africa’s, it reflects a significant improvement from weaker output growth in recent years as the country’s manufacturing and mining sectors have struggled with high inflation, energy deficits and logistical problems in exporting minerals due to deteriorating road, rail, and port infrastructure.”
The AfDB projects that South Africa’s economy will grow by a 1.3% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. The bank’s forecasts are significantly better than those of the International Monetary Fund, which in April projected that the country’s economy would grow by a mere 0.9% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.
The journalist’s travel and accommodation was sponsored by the African Development Bank