The fall of Uvira is a turning point in the DRC conflict

The M23 rebels on Wednesday seized Uvira in South Kivu province, a strategic city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo that had served as the primary stronghold for government coalition forces since the fall of Bukavu in February.

M23 troops entered the city of 600 000 inhabitants without resistance from the Congolese army, which continues to implement what it terms “strategic retreats”. 

The M23 advanced toward the border with Burundi in a single file. The capture of Uvira was the culmination of an offensive that began 10 days prior.

In daily communiqués, the rebels frequently said Kinshasa had intensified its bombardments of “densely populated” areas using fighter jets and drones, and was employing foreign mercenaries and the Burundian army on multiple fronts in an attempt to reclaim M23-occupied territory, despite the signing of a ceasefire in Doha, Qatar, on 15 November.

The seizure of Uvira was a “liberation” of the Tutsi communities from alleged government abuses, M23 spokesman Lawrence Kanyuka said. 

Last Friday, a collective of Banyamulenge (Congolese Tutsi) in South Kivu filed a complaint with the East African Court of Justice, accusing the Burundian government of besieging, bombing, killing and blockading the Banyamulenge community in Minembwe, South Kivu.

Burundi’s army spokesperson admitted to the siege in a BBC interview, adding that all communities in Minembwe, other than the Banyamulenge, were permitted to move freely. 

The fall of Uvira, located just 20km from the commercial capital Bujumbura, represents a significant setback for the Burundi government. The country has over 20 000 troops deployed on various front lines against the M23 and considers South Kivu its zone of influence. 

The government views the capture of Uvira as a direct threat, effectively cutting it off from the rest of the DRC territory. This new reality will likely force Burundi to re-evaluate its relationship with Kinshasa. 

Firstly, the capture of Uvira means Burundi now shares a border with an M23-controlled area, escalating the risk of cross-border conflict. Secondly, Burundi is grappling with a severe economic crisis that has left the country without basic necessities, including fuel. Uvira was a major source of fuel for Burundi’s capital and food products. 

While Burundi has closed its border for now, even if it reopens, a reciprocal closure by the M23 rebels on their side would cause prolonged chronic shortages for Burundi. The Uvira border is crucial to Bujumbura’s political and economic stability, particularly since Burundi closed its border with Rwanda years ago, and its other neighbour, Tanzania, is dealing with internal political challenges that impact the import of goods. 

Simultaneously, the DRC must devise a new war strategy, as the coalition was using Burundi’s international airport to route reinforcements and ammunition to the eastern fronts and to base drone and fighter jet attacks. The airport is now within range of M23’s long-range artillery and potential aeroplane frequency jamming devices — a tool the rebels have been accused of using in North Kivu previously.

The fall of Uvira also opens a path to the southern DRC, toward Greater Katanga, the country’s economic powerhouse, which is rich in copper and cobalt mines. The M23 has already declared its ambition to capture Katanga, where President Félix Tshisekedi’s family controls important mining sites.

If the M23 manages to seize Katanga, it would be a game-changer in the conflict. Katanga contributes 80% of the DRC’s total mineral income, and its loss would leave Kinshasa vulnerable. In anticipation, the DRC government is increasing its troop presence in Kalemie in Greater Katanga. 

So far, the military solution to this conflict has favoured the M23 over the DRC forces. However, the current status of the warfare suggests that the rebels’ ultimate goal of reaching Kinshasa remains distant.

At the same time, with Kinshasa’s economic cash cow now threatened and within range, the government might finally take the Doha peace process seriously.