IF it is the job of a newspaper such as this to draw the attention of opinion-makers to warning signals flashing in one region of the country, then it is time to do so.
It is Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezis modus operandi carefully to choose an apparently small issue and blow it up to the kind of proportions that become so conflict-threatening that everyone backs off rather than confront him over it. Nothing is more important to Buthelezi than his personal pride and he is prepared to create the ugliest and messiest situations for the sake of his sensitive ego. Think of non-issues that almost destroyed the negotiations process, such as international mediation and the presence of King Goodwill Zwelithini at Codesa.
Now, hurt at his loss of favour with the king, he is making a huge fuss over the monarchs invitation to President Nelson Mandela to a Shaka Day rally later this month. The irony is that Buthelezi is trying to demean the king and assert his own authority over him — exactly what he always accuses his opponents of doing, and for which he threatens the direst consequences. The danger too is that he is showing a friendly face in parliament, hiding the more bellicose message he is spreading back home.
With anyone else, the Shaka Day incident would be dismissed as an unfortunate and slightly awkward incident of protocol. But Buthelezi has called a rally this weekend at Nongoma, site of the kings palace, and has called on his amabutho to come armed. It is apparently to celebrate the Inkatha Freedom Partys regional election victory, but peace monitors are warning that word is spreading of a march either on the palace or on the homes of senior princes opposed to Buthelezi.
The same monitors warn of an upsurge of kwaZulu/Natal violence in August. They tell of the IFP and the ANC squaring up to each other again and an increase in the kind of incident that sparked the internecine violence of the pre-election period.
This presents the central government with the same tricky questions it always faces with Buthelezi. Is it worth standing up to him? Will Mandelas life be at risk if he accepts the kings invitation? One thing is clear: Mandela and the ANC are not going to be able to avoid a showdown with Buthelezi for too long.