Analysis: Anton Harber
AN Inkatha Freedom Party decision to quit the Government of National Unity will set the scene for a period of intense conflict between the central government and kwaZulu/Natal.
The IFP agenda is clear and has been expressed by senior leaders: to cement their provincial base and launch a strong push for regional autonomy. While various short-term grievances are being cited for the IFP’s attitude, the real reason lies in its long-term goals of achieving maximum autonomy for their province.
How the IFP does this is the issue it hopes to settle this weekend. There is now a strong lobby arguing that the best way is to ditch the GNU, which ties the IFP’s hands, and go all out for regional power.
An associated problem for the IFP is that Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi, the IFP president, has had a diminished role and lower profile as a junior member of the GNU cabinet than he would as an unchallenged regional leader.
He is also grappling with his struggle for power against an unfriendly king, and this is essential to the strength of his regional and traditional power base. As head of the kwaZulu/Natal house of traditional leaders, he would be able to concentrate his efforts on this crucial power struggle.
He may also make a play for the provincial premiership. The current incumbent, Dr Frank Mdladlose, is in the position only by dint of Buthelezi’s patronage and would be obliged to step aside if Buthelezi wanted the
Another issue is whether the IFP MPs will follow Buthelezi into the regional wilderness, or will return to their parliamentary seats at the end of their current two-week boycott. It is thought likely that the IFP will pull out of the cabinet, but not out of parliament. This way they will maintain a national presence and voice — and the ability to pursue their regional autonomy agenda from the platforms of the national assembly and the senate.
Whatever the outcome, there can be little doubt the IFP is seeking a confrontation with the central government over its regional powers. And this is a recipe for messy conflict, because the constitution is designed in such a way as to depend on the co-operation of the regional and the national.
Such a breakdown will spark conflicts in all areas of power — such as who controls the provincial police forces, the rights of the provinces to allocations of and control over housing, health and education budgets. If this happens, kwaZulu/Natal becomes the location for a battle that — with the IFP’s taste for tough political showdowns — will inevitably take on an ugly ethnic tinge.
Conflict between the IFP and the ANC has claimed thousands of lives in the past five years — and the conditions are being recreated for a return to that