Graham Matthews
A couple of months ago I said it would be wrong to read too=20 much into the tourist arrivals data for any one month.=20
As the weeks roll by, however, the so-called “big picture”=20 emerges and reveals the strong underlying pace of growth in=20 the number of foreign visitors entering South Africa.
Intriguingly, the big picture shows that South Africa’s new=20 political dispensation is in itself a major tourist=20 attraction, although security remains a central worry for=20 many visitors.
The number of overseas visitors was reduced by security=20 concerns during and immediately after last year’s=20 elections. In April visitor numbers were down 31 percent on=20 the levels of a year earlier. Since then, however, there=20 has been strong growth, driven most recently by the Rugby=20 World Cup.=20
The latest figures processed by the South African Tourism=20 Board (Satour) show that during the eight months to January=20 this year the number of foreign visitors increased by an=20 average of 34 percent on the levels of a year earlier.=20
Recent months show some of the most spectacular increases,=20 suggesting this growth may only now be reaching its peak.
Over the period from November to January, arrivals growth=20 was more than 40 percent. In January 58 795 overseas=20 visitors entered the country, 46 percent more than during=20 January 1994. Satour’s James Seymour says similar growth=20 may have been recorded in February.
The latest trends have also been confirmed by a survey of=20 departing air travellers, conducted during January and=20 February for Satour by Decision Surveys International.=20
More comprehensive than some of the previous surveys in=20 this series, it offers interesting insights into visitors’=20 motivations and experiences.
A quarter of those surveyed listed a desire to see the=20 results of political change as one of their two main=20 reasons for wanting to visit South Africa. Scenic beauty=20 was still the main attraction (cited by a third of=20 respondents), but the appeal of political change outshone=20 the sun (climate was a main attraction for one in five) and=20 the wildlife (19 percent).
On the down side, generally all but North American visitors=20 cited personal security in Gauteng as their greatest=20 disappointment –North Americans generally found “poor=20 service” a greater worry.
The British Consumer Association ranked South Africa as one=20 of the world’s most dangerous destinations. Satour=20 countered this assessment with the assertion that no more=20 than two percent of visitors “have a personal experience of=20 mugging, theft or crime.”
This, however, is a slightly misleading use of the survey=20 results. In fact, all that can fairly be said is that,=20 given an open question on their greatest disappointment,=20 two percent of the sample recalled an experience of crime.=20
In the mid-1980s, on a visit to East Africa I had a=20 personal experience of crime, but my greatest=20 disappointment (should anyone have asked me) would=20 certainly have been the lack of beer at the Ngorongoro=20 Crater Lodge.
Given that safety and perceptions of danger are so=20 prominent among visitors’ concerns, research dedicated to=20 the issue should perhaps be made a priority. Apart from=20 aiming to achieve a better understanding of the problem,=20 this would also arm Satour with the numbers necessary to=20 make a fair defence of the country’s record.
Graham Matthews is a lecturer in economics at the=20 University of Swaziland.