Business says South Africa can ill-afford a national strike while investor sentiment is still fragile. Madeleine Wackernagel and Jacquie Golding-Duffy report
As Cosatu members prepare to picket today (Friday), in advance of the first 24-hour national strike called this year, new evidence shows a significant increase in labour unrest in the first quarter. And this is just the beginning; activity is expected to escalate when the rounds of wage bargaining get under way in the second half of the year.
The mass action, according to business, could not come at a worse time in light of the rand’s performance, and will compound foreign investors’ reservations about buying into the South African economy.
The rand’s reaction has been relatively muted, although it fell on the stronger dollar on Thursday But there is an obvious cost to the economy in lost production. Ian Robinson, executive director of the Building Industries Federation South Africa, estimated loss in production to the construction industry alone at R200-million for the strike and public holiday.
Less easily quantified is the effect on investor confidence. “The massive investment we have been hoping for has not yet occurred,” says Gerrie Bezuidenhout of the South African Chamber of Business. “The prospect of a worsening strike situation must be a factor.”
In the period January to March, a total 175 000 mandays were lost to strike activity, against 60 000 in the first quarter of last year, says Andrew Sparks of Andrew Levy & Associates, an industrial relations expert.
Last year, 1,9-million days were lost to strike action, against 3,5-million in 1994 — and a record 9-million in 1987.
In contrast to last year, strikes have risen in number and size, pointing to a renewed union force. Calling a strike is relatively easy, says Sparks; keeping workers out on strike for several weeks is more difficult, and proof of the unions’ strength. Another difference is the background to this year’s strike action — 70% of mandays lost are down to grievances; wage-related issues contributed only 0,1%.
Sparks does not foresee a return to the “bad old days”, but nothing is clear-cut. For its part, Cosatu’s Nowetu Mpati could not predict a decline in the number of strikes. “It all depends on the relationship between labour and government, and labour and business. There are still plenty of companies that do not want to address workers’ demands.”
Business is frustrated that further discussions were not held to find a way out of the constitutional impasse. “Cosatu,” says Robinson, “is being obdurate, even resisting discussing the issues at Nedlac. If Nedlac is not the right forum for such talks, what is?”
Cosatu says it is not striking for “the sake of it”, but will go ahead with the action next week, no matter what.
The rights of labour have to be recognised, says Ravi Naidoo of the National Labour and Economic Development Institute, but it is too simplistic to see the issues as pitting capital against labour. “To say the unions are operating an agenda to disrupt the economy is nonsense. The rights of big business are already deeply entrenched; now it’s labour’s turn.”
The 300 000-strong National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) has pledged its support, as has the National Union of Metalworkers. NUM general secretary Kgalema Motlanthe says it is the “one and only chance to ensure that the lock-out clause is scrapped from the constitution”. Motlanthe says he expects “every self-respecting citizen” to rally in support of the strike.
There is some dissent, however. The Federation of South African Labour Unions (Fedsal) said the vast majority of its members were not in favour of action, although they agreed with the principle that the lock-out clause should not have equal status with the right to strike.
There is talk of a possible trade-off and that the strike call is mere political posturing.
Some say Cosatu will score on the lock-out clause, but the property clause will remain in the constitution.
In the end it may be up to President Nelson Mandela to intervene and reach a compromise. Labour Minister Tito Mboweni is keeping a low profile.
Cosatu is not easily bought off; should it fail to win this battle, it will call for a referendum, says a representative. An agreement that satisfies business, but does not alienate the workers, will need to be thrashed out before the final constitutional vote on May 8.